Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst 1234567 LastLast
Results 31 to 40 of 61

Thread: Is it ok / responsible to take a Cal trip right now?

  1. #31
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    746

    Default

    Was just looking at the CDC data for H1N1. In the year after April of 09 when it became a pandemic there were approximately 12,500 deaths in the US due to this virus. Worldwide the CDC estimate was 151,000 to 565,000 deaths worldwide(?!?!). Hell the stats on CDC say H1N1 has killed 75,000 Americans in the last 9 years! So far corona virus has killed 685 in the US and 18,000+ world wide. In what, 3 months? Why have we all lost out shit this time? We are crippling this country and ruining lives and livelihoods. I don’t get it. This whole thing is a media concocted frenzy and all everyone in charge is worried about is if they don’t act they’ll be ostracized on Twitter. That’s what’s happening.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...n-of-h1n1.html
    Last edited by Rich Morrison; 03-24-2020 at 03:51 PM.
    There are few things in life more pleasing than the sublime marriage of form and function that is found in a well crafted fly rod.

    Rich Morrison
    Vintage Powell collector/dealer
    605-858-0800
    rich@classicpowellrod.com
    www.classicpowellrod.com

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Garden Valley
    Posts
    1,076

    Default

    There are a few factors why health experts are concerned, for one thing the mortality rate of H1N1 was substantially lower, it was also not as highly contagious. Here’s just one article offering a few comparisons between the two:

    https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...swine-flu.html

    If you don’t see why there is such concern, I’d suggest that there’s lots of good information out there to understand better what some of the bigger issues are, and why health experts are taking this so seriously. No, there’s no cause for full on panic, but the notion that this is no bigger threat than other recent outbreaks is dangerously incorrect.
    "Lord help me to be the person my dog thinks I am"
    - unknown

  3. #33
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Roseville
    Posts
    225

    Default

    I saw this linked post on Instagram and thought it summed up the situation and all that goes into it very well for fishing...Highly recommended scroll through this post. Thought provoking and covers most all considerations we all need to have right now. Each of us and our situations are unique...take a minute. I promise it's worth it.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B-JEYWJH...d=4j5ulappbowq

  4. #34
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    746

    Default

    We have zero actual idea what the mortality and transmission rates are like. So many who get/have it/have had it don’t show any symptoms. And how what percentages of possible infections have actually been tested? Population density in places like Italy and China are far higher than the US. The median age is also quite different. There are so many factors that go into something like this and the media are selecting which to focus on and they are not the correct ones, they are the most sensational. I’m not saying it’s not a threat - it is. But the reaction is not proportional...its media driven.
    There are few things in life more pleasing than the sublime marriage of form and function that is found in a well crafted fly rod.

    Rich Morrison
    Vintage Powell collector/dealer
    605-858-0800
    rich@classicpowellrod.com
    www.classicpowellrod.com

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Garden Valley
    Posts
    1,076

    Default

    Rich, it’s true that there are lots of big questions still. I think we do have some pretty good estimates though on things like mortality rate, and those numbers aren’t being media generated. These data are coming from mostly the CDC, NIH, NIAID,WHO, etc; how media has reported on that data has been variable ... but the information is there to be had. The 2% mortality rate is suspected to be on the high side, due to the unknown numbers of people infected, but experts on the front line such Dr. Anthony Fauci have suggested that 1% would be a bottom level estimate (still 50 times higher mortality rate than H1N1).
    As far as transmission rates, the fact that there has been so little testing here, the long incubation period, and the larger numbers of mild symptoms or asymptotic cases, all combine to make this particular virus extremely difficult to contain. Those reasons are central in the cause for concern. This concern isn’t coming from news media; it’s coming from every medical expert in the world who is involved in fighting the pandemic. Many health experts have been saying that we haven’t done enough fast enough, and that one of the big problems has been the number of people not taking this serious enough. Judging by the information we do have, I’m inclined to agree with that assessment 100%!
    Last edited by JasonB; 03-25-2020 at 07:59 AM.
    "Lord help me to be the person my dog thinks I am"
    - unknown

  6. #36
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    746

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonB View Post
    Rich, it’s true that there are lots of big questions still. I think we do have some pretty good estimates though on things like mortality rate, and those numbers aren’t being media generated. These data are coming from mostly the CDC, NIH, NIAID,WHO, etc; how media has reported on that data has been variable ... but the information is there to be had. The 2% mortality rate is suspected to be on the high side, due to the unknown numbers of people infected, but experts on the front line such Dr. Anthony Fauci have suggested that 1% would be a bottom level estimate (still 50 times higher mortality rate than H1N1).
    As far as transmission rates, the fact that there has been so little testing here, the long incubation period, and the larger numbers of mild symptoms or asymptotic cases, all combine to make this particular virus extremely difficult to contain. Those reasons are central in the cause for concern. This concern isn’t coming from news media; it’s coming from every medical expert in the world who is involved in fighting the pandemic. Many health experts have been saying that we haven’t done enough fast enough, and that one of the big problems has been the number of people not taking this serious enough. Judging by the information we do have, I’m inclined to agree with that assessment 100%!
    I’ve seen a couple of medical sources put the rate at .1%, not 1. Still a high number but not this level of freak out high. Heck the suicide rate this economic and panic damage will cause may outpace the virus.
    There are few things in life more pleasing than the sublime marriage of form and function that is found in a well crafted fly rod.

    Rich Morrison
    Vintage Powell collector/dealer
    605-858-0800
    rich@classicpowellrod.com
    www.classicpowellrod.com

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Woodland, CA
    Posts
    77

    Default

    As of this morning John Hopkins University reports 55,243 confirmed coronavirus infections in the U.S., with more than 800 deaths. 1.45%.

  8. #38
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Garden Valley
    Posts
    1,076

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ryeflyguy View Post
    As of this morning John Hopkins University reports 55,243 confirmed coronavirus infections in the U.S., with more than 800 deaths. 1.45%.
    Of course there would be some lag to account for, those are the fatalities of patients who contracted the disease as much as a week or so in the past. Of course that doesn’t take into account the number of unconfirmed cases, which we know is a considerable variable. I have not heard or read any estimates lower than 1% so far, and it’s important to also note that in Italy it’s currently running at 10% mortality rate! The huge variable in all of this, and the main reason medical professionals are so concerned, is the limited amount of medical resources to care for the ill. Mortality rates will skyrocket if we do not have the capacity to provide sufficient hospital care, which by current trajectories is mathematically very possible.
    "Lord help me to be the person my dog thinks I am"
    - unknown

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Yolo County
    Posts
    13

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ryeflyguy View Post
    As of this morning John Hopkins University reports 55,243 confirmed coronavirus infections in the U.S., with more than 800 deaths. 1.45%.
    Almost all of the data in the news including the data from from medical experts are guesses. We don’t know the number of people infected; therefore, we cannot calculate the fatality rate. The best data we have is from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We can extrapolate from that but even then we are making a lot of assumptions. The basics are in the article below. Unfortunately, the article does not include some important data such as the mean and median ages of the ship’s population. In this case, I would assume that the ship population’s average age is older than the average in most areas. Thus, from what we know about this virus being more deadly for people who are older, the actual fatality rate of the virus should be lower than the rate of the ship’s population.

    WHO and other organizations that published rates of fatalities based on deaths from “known cases” without explaining that the percentage they reported was far higher than the fatality rate that was actually occurring have done a terrible disservice. Even this week in the US, most people who report symptoms in-line with those caused by the virus are told to go home and stay in isolation. Unless they are experiencing severe symptoms or are in a high risk category, they are not tested. It is probable that some, perhaps many, of these people actually have the virus but unless their health deteriorates, they will never know and they won’t be counted as having been infected in any fatality rate statistics. In contrast, we have many decades of research on influenza viruses, so our data is better.

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate
    Last edited by Mark Stinson; 03-25-2020 at 09:02 PM.

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Woodland, CA
    Posts
    77

    Default

    All valid points by JasonB and Mark. What we know for sure is that there has been a dearth and a lag in testing so the medical community and epidemiologists don't have all the data. I believe it's best that we all follow the guidelines and advice of the medical professionals as our top priority so that we can all get through this with the fewest number of cases.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •