American river begins its descent

[STEELIES/26c3]

As expected, the AR will begin dropping.

It was hard to predict exactly what DWR would be doing with flows this year in light of the decent snow-pack and near-capacity reservoirs both in low-lying and high-altitude areas...

I extrapolated from the Data Center website and saw that Folsom Lake had a median capacity of 65% in July, going back as far as the 1970's. Yet, with the new spillway and its ability to release more water quickly, there was the potential to keep the lake fuller.

When I saw the snow all melted in mid to late July, I wondered how the lake was still receiving incoming flows of 3000cfs at times. I had forgotten to account for all of the reservoirs which, when full, contribute a significant amount to the level of Folsom Lake. Folsom Lake has been decreasing in volume by 1% every 3rd day or so.

The flows out of Folsom increased to its peak and current exit rate of 5,000 cfs which DWR has maintained throughout the entire month of July. Folsom Lake dropped from 94% to 62% in a matter of 9 weeks.

On May 23, 2018 Folsom Lake level peaked.
05/23/2018 05:00 463.93 ft 953,939 af 610 cfs in 3,372 cfs out
Its current numbers are as follows:
08/01/2018 08:00 431.67 ft 628,669 af 6,615 cfs in 1,237 cfs out

I figured 60% capacity was likely the target 'magic number' for August 1 and DWR just released its tapering flow schedule to support that.

The flows are coming down 500cfs and this should be the beginning of an approach to a maintained flow of 3000cfs-2500cfs on our American River by September if not sooner.

Here's the projected flow

DATE / TIME REL SCH
08/02/2018 21:00 4900 cfs
08/02/2018 22:00 4800 cfs
08/02/2018 23:00 4700 cfs
08/03/2018 00:00 4600 cfs
08/03/2018 01:00 4500 cfs

[EricO]

Let's hope some half pounders start showing up! Love wet wading in 90 degree heat
after work or on the weekend.

4500 cfs is a tad high in some places, so we'll see.

Eric

[STEELIES/26c3]

Let's hope some half pounders start showing up! Love wet wading in 90 degree heat
after work or on the weekend.

4500 cfs is a tad high in some places, so we'll see.

Eric

Typically, when the river begins a downward trend (or an upward trend in the spring/summer for that matter) the lake level is close to or right at the cusp on which Folsom Lake level is to be maintained. Therefore, the river will likely only flow at 4500 until again, the lake drops below that cusp and then flows will be further reduced.

I don't know the exact schedule nor just how low our Folsom, Oroville, Shasta and other main storage reservoirs will be emptied before approaching the rainy season but a good approximation would be:

Aug 3 = 4500 cfs FOLSOM = 62%
Aug 10 = 4000 cfs FOLSOM = 60%
Aug 15 = 3750 cfs FOLSOM = 60%
Aug 18 = 3500 cfs FOLSOM = 60%
Aug 24 = 3000 cfs FOLSOM = 57%
Sept 1 = 2750 cfs FOLSOM = 55%
Sept 7 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 55%
Sept 15 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 50%
Sept 20 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 50%
Sept 24 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 45%
Sept 30 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 45%

and regardless, I've waded the American safely all summer and caught lots of fish so you can wait for stellar reports and/or perfect flows or you can go fish

[STEELIES/26c3]

Typically, when the river begins a downward trend (or an upward trend in the spring/summer for that matter) the lake level is close to or right at the cusp on which Folsom Lake level is to be maintained. Therefore, the river will likely only flow at 4500 until again, the lake drops below that cusp and then flows will be further reduced.

I don't know the exact schedule nor just how low our Folsom, Oroville, Shasta and other main storage reservoirs will be emptied before approaching the rainy season but a good approximation would be:

Aug 3 = 4500 cfs FOLSOM = 62%
Aug 10 = 4000 cfs FOLSOM = 60%
Aug 15 = 3750 cfs FOLSOM = 60%
Aug 18 = 3500 cfs FOLSOM = 60%
Aug 24 = 3000 cfs FOLSOM = 57%
Sept 1 = 2750 cfs FOLSOM = 55%
Sept 7 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 55%
Sept 15 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 50%
Sept 20 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 50%
Sept 24 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 45%
Sept 30 = 2500 cfs FOLSOM = 45%

and regardless, I've waded the American safely all summer and caught lots of fish so you can wait for stellar reports and/or perfect flows or you can go fish

I should have gone to Vegas the day I predicted these flows...

08/02/2018 21:00	4900 cfs
08/02/2018 22:00	4800 cfs
08/02/2018 23:00	4700 cfs
08/03/2018 00:00	4600 cfs
08/03/2018 01:00	4500 cfs
08/09/2018 21:00	4400 cfs
08/09/2018 22:00	4300 cfs
08/09/2018 23:00	4200 cfs
08/10/2018 00:00	4100 cfs
08/10/2018 01:00	4000 cfs

[STEELIES/26c3]

DATE / TIME	REL SCH
08/09/2018 21:00	4400 cfs
08/09/2018 22:00	4300 cfs
08/09/2018 23:00	4200 cfs
08/10/2018 00:00	4100 cfs
08/10/2018 01:00	4000 cfs
08/14/2018 21:00	3900 cfs
08/14/2018 22:00	3800 cfs
08/14/2018 23:00	3700 cfs
08/15/2018 21:00	3600 cfs
08/15/2018 22:00	3500 cfs
08/15/2018 23:00	3400 cfs
08/16/2018 21:00	3300 cfs
08/16/2018 22:00	3200 cfs
08/16/2018 23:00	3100 cfs

[STEELIES/26c3]

Looks like DWR is going to hold more water back in September than previously thought. I suppose the mindset is that they can always increase flows if there is still a surplus in October...

DATE / TIME	REL SCH
08/14/2018 21:00	3900 cfs
08/14/2018 22:00	3800 cfs
08/14/2018 23:00	3700 cfs
08/15/2018 21:00	3600 cfs
08/15/2018 22:00	3500 cfs
08/15/2018 23:00	3400 cfs
08/16/2018 21:00	3300 cfs
08/16/2018 22:00	3200 cfs
08/16/2018 23:00	3100 cfs
08/21/2018 21:00	3000 cfs
08/21/2018 22:00	2900 cfs
08/21/2018 23:00	2800 cfs
08/22/2018 21:00	2700 cfs
08/22/2018 22:00	2600 cfs
08/22/2018 23:00	2500 cfs
08/23/2018 21:00	2400 cfs
08/23/2018 22:00	2300 cfs
08/23/2018 23:00	2200 cfs

[Troutsource]

I wonder if the new auxiliary dam is now affecting the calculations, since they can spill water faster.

[STEELIES/26c3]

I wonder if the new auxiliary dam is now affecting the calculations, since they can spill water faster.

I would think so but we won't really know until October. 52% of capacity retention in late August seems about right. In recent prior years, lesser retention in Folsom Lake had more to do with a lack of water than concerns of flooding...

[Bill Kiene semi-retired]

We usually see Half-pounders from Watt Avenue down to Cal-Expo / Paradise Beach is late August.

Sept/Oct are good months for these nice fish.

We would go out at 6:00 am and fish for a few hours.

Last few hours in the evening can be good too.

For years we used a #6 weight outfit with a floating line, 9' 3x leader and a small #12 wet fly of your choice.

Caddis seem to be the most popular patterns.

Be sure to fish barbless.


I can meet you on the river and give you an hour of very basic instruction for free.


Here is an article I wrote on the Lower American River:

http://www.billkiene.com/articles/lower-american-river/

[Jeff C.]

Mark, you nailed it exactly as you told me yesterday. I'm looking forward to when it drops to 3000 cfs because it will make wading easier in locations I like to fish.