Originally Posted by
STEELIES/26c3
There is a way to get projected flows from NOAA and CDEC sites but they are merely that (projections).
Here is the most relevant projection to my area (from CDEC)
SACRAMENTO RIVER AT I STREET BRIDGE
7:00 AM STAGE: 9.2 FT
FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 9.2 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.0 FT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 10.2 FT LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.9 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 10.0 FT THURSDAY NEAR MIDNIGHT
THEN FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 10.0 FT THRU FRIDAY MORNING
MONITOR STAGE: 27.5 FT, FLOOD STAGE: 33.5 FT, DANGER STAGE: 34.5 FT
The rest is guesswork. If you've fished or lived and monitored flows for 30 years in the area, you get pretty good at estimating dam releases based not only on weather but also on time of year and amount of annual rain and snowfall and accumulation.
No one however could have predicted that Sacramento would get 2.38" of rain in one day.
That is the only reason the American River went up from 2000 to 3500 the next day. I am pretty certain, it will go back down in a week or less because water coming in should lessen and I believe DWR wants to maintain Lake Folsom at around 54% capacity in January and it is currently at 56%.
Hope that helps...
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