Great Start of 2017- Weather

[John Sv]

Double post on a concurrent thread
Deleted

[Digger]

October (the start of the water year) was a wet month, something like 400% of normal precipitation in most of the Sierra's.
December was the wettest month since 2010.

most of the recent events (storms) this season have been originating off the eastern Pacific and south of Hawaii then directly driving into California.
These Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are much warmer/wetter than those that drop south out of the Gulf of Ak.
bringing the dreaded Sierra Cement us skiers generally don't prefer, with snow to water ratios ~10:1
This is what we've come to expect of the El Nino winters of the past, like '82-'83.
When the cold storms drop out of AK, we get the dry powder ratios like 12:1 or champagne powder 15:1
I suspect this colder system currently upon us will bring some great skiable fluff.
if you can get up there.

Right now the automated snow sensors (not as accurate as manual snow course measurements at the first of each month) tell us the water content of the snow is:
- Northern Sierra/Trinity basins avg = 111% for this date
- Central Sierra's avg = 130 %
- Southern Sierra's avg = 171%

with many reservoirs already reaching historical averages or higher, and another 2 1/2 months of possible precip, this drought could be history. Pretty much everywhere north of S.F./Sac already is drought free.
It's been a long five years.
Not bad for weak La Nina conditions.

[cdevine]

October (the start of the water year) was a wet month, something like 400% of normal precipitation in most of the Sierra's.
December was the wettest month since 2010.

most of the recent events (storms) this season have been originating off the eastern Pacific and south of Hawaii then directly driving into California.
These Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are much warmer/wetter than those that drop south out of the Gulf of Ak.
bringing the dreaded Sierra Cement us skiers generally don't prefer, with snow to water ratios ~10:1
This is what we've come to expect of the El Nino winters of the past, like '82-'83.
When the cold storms drop out of AK, we get the dry powder ratios like 12:1 or champagne powder 15:1
I suspect this colder system currently upon us will bring some great skiable fluff.
if you can get up there.

Right now the automated snow sensors (not as accurate as manual snow course measurements at the first of each month) tell us the water content of the snow is:
- Northern Sierra/Trinity basins avg = 111% for this date
- Central Sierra's avg = 130 %
- Southern Sierra's avg = 171%

with many reservoirs already reaching historical averages or higher, and another 2 1/2 months of possible precip, this drought could be history. Pretty much everywhere north of S.F./Sac already is drought free.
It's been a long five years.
Not bad for weak La Nina conditions.

This storm has been one for the ages. Historic in strength and delivered numbers. I guess the weather people got this one right. Digger, I think those % are understated. I've seen revised totals in the 200%+ and coming up. It has been a long 5 years. Lets hope some normalcy returns and we can enjoy the gifts of mother nature.

[John Sv]

This storm is not particularly cold. I live by prosser reservoir so pretty low and we have gotten a lot of heavy wet snow. At about 10 last night it switched to rain for a little bit. What we get today and tomorrow should be nice and skiable but with the wind and the sheer depth of fresh I think today is dig out day at the mountains.

[JasonB]

I figure, if it's not first hand....it's speculation.
When you have to shovel it, it's pretty real......

Jim

Now THAT is what I like to see! Sorry about all the shoveling, just think of all that water that this will mean for the river and it's trout. It's been too long since we've been in a drought, and it makes me so happy to see full rivers, and snow in the mountains. I would imagine you got a lot more last night? The rain was pounding the foothills around here last night!
JB

[JasonB]

Not sure if everyone has this link or not: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/p...s/PLOT_SWC.pdf
It's a quick, simple snow/water content plot for the northern, central, and southern mountains. Not a detailed basin by basin accounting, but I like this one because it's simple and shows comparative years in a graph form. Looks like for the central part of the state we're at 130% of average to date (57% of the April 1st total snowpack accumulation). So, there is still plenty of room for speculation, up or down; but for now I think I'm going to remain highly optimistic. I'm enjoying seeing things in a much better state, water wise, than we've seen since 2011.
JB

[cdevine]

Cool link JB. Thanks for sharing. It will be interesting to see how all the numbers tally up when things clear out by Friday. My mom got almost 10 inches of rain in Sonoma County yesterday. That area of the state is no longer "technically" in a drought. I live close to Folsom Lake and Green Valley Road was totally flooded yesterday and the lake came up 20 feet since in last 2 days!
The resorts over report snow (we all know) but in a year like this what is the difference between saying we got 8 feet vs 7 feet out of this storm. MT Rose will have over 400 inches this season by end of the week. That is unheard of from the eastern side. Would be great to see a 600 inch season at some of our wetter resorts. Def coming out of this in great shape with a lot of winter left.

[mattv-mcfly]

Does anyone know how much water Lake Berryessa needs for me to see some glory hole action? I've never seen it and I'm curious.

[cmcdhuibh]

The glory hole is at 443' ish if I remember right. Most years it doesn't get to it. Our gauge was if the park below our trailer at Rancho Montecllo was at water level it was going over.

[Digger]

Not sure if everyone has this link or not: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/p...s/PLOT_SWC.pdf
It's a quick, simple snow/water content plot for the northern, central, and southern mountains. Not a detailed basin by basin accounting, but I like this one because it's simple and shows comparative years in a graph form. Looks like for the central part of the state we're at 130% of average to date (57% of the April 1st total snowpack accumulation). So, there is still plenty of room for speculation, up or down; but for now I think I'm going to remain highly optimistic. I'm enjoying seeing things in a much better state, water wise, than we've seen since 2011.
JB

I guess you didn't see my post #42