Flows on the Lower American are dropping?

[STEELIES/26c3]

Hey Aaron whatsup?

I tried to call you and got a wrong number. Did you change it?

We'll have to hook up soon.


Fish On!

[STEELIES/26c3]

oh yeah...

I should probably say....

All of that info and more is readily available, daily to all via the CDEC website.

You can get past present and sometimes future data on temps, flows, etc...

I have been using the website for many years and it definitely helps me plan my whens and wheres of fishing not just on the American River but on others as well...

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/index.html

[Troutsource]

Folsom Lake is now over 31% full: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?FOL

It went from 277K acre-feet to 310K as a result of last week's rain.

The National Weather Services is talking about a Wednesday-Thursday storm delivering 2-4 inches of rain to the valley, and 5-10 inches liquid equivalent in the foothills and mountains. If this pans out we could be off to a good start this year. Here's the discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product....n=1&glossary=1

[STEELIES/26c3]

YEP I'm believing were on our way out...

of the drought~

If we get 2-3 more solid systems and then our typical late-Feb/March rains, we'll be in pretty good shape.

[SeanO]

Don't jinx it!! LOL.

Looking forward to this next system for sure!

YEP I'm believing were on our way out...

of the drought~

If we get 2-3 more solid systems and then our typical late-Feb/March rains, we'll be in pretty good shape.

[Scott V]

YEP I'm believing were on our way out...

of the drought~

If we get 2-3 more solid systems and then our typical late-Feb/March rains, we'll be in pretty good shape.

We need a lot more than that, the big problem is ground water which you can't see. That is where we need a lot of water. This last storm did very little to help. We need about 20 or 30 more storms like that.

[winxp_man]

Hey Aaron whatsup?

I tried to call you and got a wrong number. Did you change it?

We'll have to hook up soon.


Fish On!

I still got the same number I remember giving you. You still have the same one? Hope you do because I sent you a text today...

Any way yes its about that time of the year We sure are getting a bit a rain but more can't hurt

[ycflyfisher]

All the major reservoirs are in the same boat. Here’s how I’m seeing it:

The winter seasons of 2012, 2013, and 2014 resulted in ~500taf, ~300taf and ~150taf net gains to storage in Trinity respectively. Last year the T got the “critical dry year” hydrograph and the Jr. rights holders got a zero allocation resulting in the lowest possible demand in terms of draw down Trinity can experience. That demand was ~720taf. Trinity is currently at ~600taf. While we’re currently front-running the curve through Nov 2014, the reality as I’m seeing it, is that we need to front-run the curve BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT, every month this winter season.

We are in a position where there’s still potential risk where there will not be a “next season”. Even if we front-run the curve for Dec 2014 (compared to recent years) and get say enough precip to add ~200taf of storage to Trinity, but don’t get any significant precip the rest of the winter, factor in the ~350cfs to the river and winter flow through the Clear Creek tunnel, every day, all winter long: Trinity goes dry/nearly dry sometime in August 2015 without some form of federal intervention that releases the state and federal water projects from meeting obligated deliveries to riparian and senior rights holders. My knowledge of CA water management is rudimentary at best, but I’m pretty certain they can’t legally tell the riparian and senior rights holders that they’ll get no water, or that they’re going to be getting reduced deliveries. I don’t think that’s an option.

Even if we get a winter that’s roughly equivalent to the net gains in storage of the last three winters combined (i.e. ~150+~300+~500= ~900taf) that would put Trinity at ~800taf by Oct 1, 2015 IF drawdown demands remain the same as the designated “critically dry” 2014. The reality as I see it we get enough precip to give us that result, 2015 is probably not designated a “critically dry” year because the driver for those indices are relative runoff and not total storage from what I can tell. Drawdown in 2015 increases by ~150taf for a “dry” year and we end up in roughly the same boat we were in this fall (~650 vs 550taf). legit concerns of a fish kill in the lower K, legit concerns about adult fish surviving the lower river, but being severely infested enough that it impacts survival prior to spawning, horrific oversummering conditions that brutally hammer every aspect of the riverine ecosystem including survival to smoltification/smolt production, Trinity spitting thousands of dead fish into Lewie, and a myriad of other adverse factors including ongoing concerns that Trinity might go dry in the summer of 2016 if the winter of 2016 is not a really wet one.

Every other major storage reservoir/riverine ecosystem below it is in the same boat as the Trinity this winter and will suffer similar impacts if we don’t have a wet winter. I’m not seeing a few major storms or a few months worth of storms saving us unless one of those storms approaches 1986 severity. The reality as I see it, is that we likely don’t climb out of the pit we’re currently in with one wet winter.

[flyguy1]

The previous storm and hopefully the incoming storm is a great start in helping us climb out of this drought, bit remember the snow pack is our biggest water storage reservoir. We need snow and lots of it, pray for lower snow that the previous storms. The weather service prediction isfor average to a little above average rainfall for the next three month, and temps are predicted to be above average. Bring on the storms and snow.

Scott K

[Frank Alessio]

Everything is ok now Prop 1 Passed and Jerry will take care of you....

The winter seasons of 2012, 2013, and 2014 resulted in ~500taf, ~300taf and ~150taf net gains to storage in Trinity respectively. Last year the T got the “critical dry year” hydrograph and the Jr. rights holders got a zero allocation resulting in the lowest possible demand in terms of draw down Trinity can experience. That demand was ~720taf. Trinity is currently at ~600taf. While we’re currently front-running the curve through Nov 2014, the reality as I’m seeing it, is that we need to front-run the curve BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT, every month this winter season.

We are in a position where there’s still potential risk where there will not be a “next season”. Even if we front-run the curve for Dec 2014 (compared to recent years) and get say enough precip to add ~200taf of storage to Trinity, but don’t get any significant precip the rest of the winter, factor in the ~350cfs to the river and winter flow through the Clear Creek tunnel, every day, all winter long: Trinity goes dry/nearly dry sometime in August 2015 without some form of federal intervention that releases the state and federal water projects from meeting obligated deliveries to riparian and senior rights holders. My knowledge of CA water management is rudimentary at best, but I’m pretty certain they can’t legally tell the riparian and senior rights holders that they’ll get no water, or that they’re going to be getting reduced deliveries. I don’t think that’s an option.

Even if we get a winter that’s roughly equivalent to the net gains in storage of the last three winters combined (i.e. ~150+~300+~500= ~900taf) that would put Trinity at ~800taf by Oct 1, 2015 IF drawdown demands remain the same as the designated “critically dry” 2014. The reality as I see it we get enough precip to give us that result, 2015 is probably not designated a “critically dry” year because the driver for those indices are relative runoff and not total storage from what I can tell. Drawdown in 2015 increases by ~150taf for a “dry” year and we end up in roughly the same boat we were in this fall (~650 vs 550taf). legit concerns of a fish kill in the lower K, legit concerns about adult fish surviving the lower river, but being severely infested enough that it impacts survival prior to spawning, horrific oversummering conditions that brutally hammer every aspect of the riverine ecosystem including survival to smoltification/smolt production, Trinity spitting thousands of dead fish into Lewie, and a myriad of other adverse factors including ongoing concerns that Trinity might go dry in the summer of 2016 if the winter of 2016 is not a really wet one.

Every other major storage reservoir/riverine ecosystem below it is in the same boat as the Trinity this winter and will suffer similar impacts if we don’t have a wet winter. I’m not seeing a few major storms or a few months worth of storms saving us unless one of those storms approaches 1986 severity. The reality as I see it, is that we likely don’t climb out of the pit we’re currently in with one wet winter.[/QUOTE]