2014 Trinity Flow Schedule

[Ben J]

http://www.trrp.net/restore/flows/current/


As expected, there is not much water for the Trinity. It will be back down to 450 in late June. I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking at dangerous conditions on the Klamath for the fall salmon run without much cold water coming down.

[SeanO]

Looks like similar conditions as last year when the springers come up the canyon. Even less water early on, but I don't think the fall run will experience significantly worse conditions than last year?

I wish they would reallocate more water for the trinity, especially in "critically dry years". With less input from tribs, water is even more valuable in basin than during wet years. Seems pretty simple to me, but I guess there are lots of farms that want the water too.

2013:



2014:

[Ben J]

If I remember correctly, they jacked up the flows significantly for about a month in August/September last year as an emergency measure to prevent a potential fish kill in the Klamath. I also think there was some kind of court action by the farmers/water district against the increased flows, can't remember the details. I just can't imagine this scenario not playing out again.

[ycflyfisher]

I’m extremely concerned about this issue. IMO there’s really two temperature issues of concern here:

1-The potential adverse effects on up migrating adult salmonids, spring and fall (as Salmonid mentions).


2-The potential adverse effects of elevated summer temps on yearling/sub-yearling anadromous fishes and the riverine species of the basin.

Looking at #1 first, temp wise this is where we were this time last year using the Doug City gauge as a reference:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jsp...cookies=cdec01

The river was diurnally oscillating between ~47 and 50/51 deg F with an average daily mean of ~49F.

Here’s where we are this year for the same period:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jsp...cookies=cdec01

Diurnally oscillating between ~50 and 56 deg F with an average daily mean of ~53F. In other words, the T is already running several degrees warmer than it was at this time last year.

Part of that delta in temp (the smaller portion) I think can be attributed to, as Salmonid points out that a larger volume of water was being released from Lewie at this time last year, and a larger volume of moving water isn’t as affected by temp changes from the ambient environment as it moves down river.

I think the much larger contributor to the river temp increase 2014 vs 2013 is the fact that Trinity Lake was at 2.14M acre feet last year vs. 1.26M acre feet this year. As the lake level has dropped it’s losing CWP potential and I think that’s what we’re seeing causing most of the temp increase.

That raises concern for me, because when the fall run starts to arrive in August, they’ll likely encounter conditions a few degrees warmer than last year, and the 20K af of refugia flows that were won at the Fed Court level last year, will not only need to provide thermal refugia for a potentially warmer lower river than in 2013, but it also will have a higher initial release temp from Lewie and likely will not have the same refugia potential that it was able to provide in 2013.

Do we hit that point of critical mass this year? I don’t know, but I’m seeing the potential for an adult fish kill if the escapement abundance is high to be significantly higher this year than it was last year. I’m not seeing how more risk isn’t something of a given this year.

As for #2, The Klamath was a mess last summer and was much worse than I’d ever seen it; so much so that I only made one trip up last summer in June. Huge 100+ yard long mats of filamentous algae in every feathered edge, water that was still elevated in flow, but was approaching 70F@ Big Bar. The Trinity @ Hoopa actually eclipsed 78F last summer. The mid Klamath had to be well over 80F by then.

Notice the temps were not only over 70F for the entire month of July @ Hoopa, but were significantly over 70F.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jsp...cookies=cdec01

I think it likely will be even worse this year. Not exactly condusive to adequate inriver habitat IMO.

I’m definitely concerned this year and scared pretty shitless about what happens if the KMP experiences yet another dry winter. What happens if we head into the spring of 2015 with Trinity Lake at <700k acre feet?

[SeanO]

yc,

You make too much sense. I did not even think about the temperature of the pool above the dam being warmer this year with the reduced level. I know that the state has reduced export of water from the delta considerably, this year, but it will be interesting to see how that translates into Trin water temps. Does anyone have a link of the cfs export from the trinity to the Sac handy? I hope it is shut down as well, but I suppose it's about the same as they release into the Trinity river?

Best & thanks for the heads up, yc,

I’m extremely concerned about this issue.

[STEELIES/26c3]

Reclamation Announces Final Schedule for Releases into Trinity River as Part of Restoration Program

REDDING, Calif. -The Bureau of Reclamation announced today that releases from Lewiston Dam into the Trinity River will increase to a peak flow of 1,500 cubic feet per second over a two-day period as part of the Trinity River Restoration Program.
Releases will begin increasing April 23 and remain at the peak of 1,500 cfs for a period of 36 days, extending from April 24 to May 29. Release rates will then be reduced to 1,200 cfs during June 3-5 and to 700 cfs during June 15-18. The summer base-flow rate of 450 cfs will begin on June 26. The total water allocation for Trinity River restoration flows in a “critically dry” water year, such as this, is 369,000 acre-feet.
The public should take appropriate safety precautions whenever near or on the river. Landowners are advised to clear personal items and debris from the floodplain prior to the releases.
The December 2000, Trinity River Mainstem Fishery Restoration Record of Decision created a plan for the restoration of the Trinity River and its fish and wildlife populations. The Program’s restoration strategy includes four different restoration elements, one of which includes increased releases to the river, separate and apart from Central Valley Project water allocations. Flow regimes link two essential purposes deemed necessary to restore and maintain the Trinity River’s fishery resources: 1) flows to provide physical fish habitat (i.e., appropriate depths and velocities, and suitable temperature regimes for anadromous salmonids), and 2) flows to restore the riverine processes that create and maintain the structural integrity and spatial complexity of the fish habitats. More information on the Trinity River ROD can be found at www.trrp.net/background/rod/.
A daily schedule of flow releases is available at http://www.trrp.net/restore/flows/current/, and the public may subscribe to automated notifications (via phone or email) of Trinity River release changes. The flow release schedule is posted at the Trinity River Restoration Program office, located at 1313 South Main Street, Weaverville, CA.
For additional information, please call 530-623-1800 or email info@trrp.net.

[ycflyfisher]

Salmonid,

I think it’s easy to overlook the diminishing CWP issue that’s a factor this year, because you have to go back all the way to 2009 for the last year Trinity Lake was anywhere close to as low as it is this year. It just hasn’t been a legit reason for concern in the recent past.

I’ve never seen any realtime (or summary) export data for the T, but I’ve never really looked for it. I’m sure it’s available somewhere. The 2000 ROD that 26c3 posted a link to does briefly discuss approximate amounts by which diversion decreases in dry years if memory serves. The number that typically is cited since the 2000 ROD is a ~47/53 split between ecosystem/diversion for the Trinity.

Running some rough numbers based on area under the curve of the current “critically dry” river release hydrograph that goes to 300cfs beginning in Oct, assuming the 47/53 ecosystem/diversion split applies for the period, assuming inflow similar to last summer, and approximating evap loss in Trinity and Lewiston Lakes between now and August 20th you get ~-155kaf for outflow, ~-175kaf for diversion, ~+40kaf for inflow, and ~-20kaf for evap for a net loss of about -290kaf between now and Aug 20th. I’m guessing we'll see Trinity Lake down below 1M acre feet before Sept 1. It was at 1.46M af on Aug 20th of last year.

I’d definitely like to see a minimum CWP set for Trinity Lake, where once that level triggers all diversion has to stop. The unfortunate reality as I see it, for something like that to be implemented, major disaster in some form will have to strike on the Klamath and an ESA/ imperilment battle will need to be won at the Federal court level. It’d be great to get something like that without a mitigable ecosystem disaster that potentially pummels the Klamath and it’s listed species, but I’m not seeing that battle being winnable on concern alone.

Hopefully we dodge the bullet this year and get a wet 2014/2015 winter.

[SeanO]

Thanks 26c3 and especially ycfly for the info. and putting the numbers through the equations!

Sad to see the outflow down the Trinity less than the diversion flow. The fish are adapted to more water than they get now, for sure. I'm kind of new here and would prefer to see some different criteria for water usage in the state, especially the relatively pristine North state, for the fish's sake. At any rate, I really appreciate your time put into the good response.

Sounds like a fish species will need to be listed (best chance is Spring-run Chinook I guess) and/or another major fish kill to happen to implement change... We'll see what develops. But, I am also hopeful that this el nino materializes this winter and the next for the short term health of the system!

Take care guys,

Salmonid,

I think it’s easy to overlook the diminishing CWP issue that’s a factor this year, because you have to go back all the way to 2009 for the last year Trinity Lake was anywhere close to as low as it is this year. It just hasn’t been a legit reason for concern in the recent past.

I’ve never seen any realtime (or summary) export data for the T, but I’ve never really looked for it. I’m sure it’s available somewhere. The 2000 ROD that 26c3 posted a link to does briefly discuss approximate amounts by which diversion decreases in dry years if memory serves. The number that typically is cited since the 2000 ROD is a ~47/53 split between ecosystem/diversion for the Trinity.

Running some rough numbers based on area under the curve of the current “critically dry” river release hydrograph that goes to 300cfs beginning in Oct, assuming the 47/53 ecosystem/diversion split applies for the period, assuming inflow similar to last summer, and approximating evap loss in Trinity and Lewiston Lakes between now and August 20th you get ~-155kaf for outflow, ~-175kaf for diversion, ~+40kaf for inflow, and ~-20kaf for evap for a net loss of about -290kaf between now and Aug 20th. I’m guessing we'll see Trinity Lake down below 1M acre feet before Sept 1. It was at 1.46M af on Aug 20th of last year.

I’d definitely like to see a minimum CWP set for Trinity Lake, where once that level triggers all diversion has to stop. The unfortunate reality as I see it, for something like that to be implemented, major disaster in some form will have to strike on the Klamath and an ESA/ imperilment battle will need to be won at the Federal court level. It’d be great to get something like that without a mitigable ecosystem disaster that potentially pummels the Klamath and it’s listed species, but I’m not seeing that battle being winnable on concern alone.

Hopefully we dodge the bullet this year and get a wet 2014/2015 winter.