Looking for information on Rogue R. for Friday, 3/17

[Paul Meyers]

I'll be in Medford on Friday and Saturday and the wife said I have an unused fishing pass that I can use for one of the days. So I was hoping the that Rogue was one fishable and to get a suggestion on a float.

Thank you in advance.

Paul

[sculpin]

Paul
The fish are just starting to show above Gold Ray according to the last count. The water is down to a fishable flow and the color isn't to bad. The water and weather temperatures have been running below normal. All the fish we have been catching have been in the slow water and everything seems to be in sloooowwww mooootion. I haven't been in the Sady Cove to the Hatchery area so I can't say what's happening there. Be very careful on any drift on the Rogue.

Mark

[jbird]

The Current steelhead run on the rogue is Really poor....hopefully the fish are just late. W'eve been saying that for the last year and a half tho, and the run just never really shows up. I think we are in the grips of a small anadromous return cycle. We should have well over 5000 fish over the dam by this date....and I mean WELL over. We only have half that and a bunch of those could be summer downers. Combine that with the persistant high flows, cold weather and cold water, and its been just plain tough. This is the time, however, that a big shot of fish can show up in the blink of an eye and really surprise a perpared angler. Maybe it'll happen when your here. Good luck.

Right about when I'd given up hope today, I was blessed with this beast.

J

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v283/jbird35/mypicturees008.jpg

[Paul Meyers]

Thank you Mark and J,

I'll probably just go out for a morning to lunch outing. Prehaps do more exploring than anything as when the fishing is slow I use that as a time to learn.

The bright side is that there is at least documented proof of one good fish in the river. Nice fish. :shock:

Paul

[sculpin]

I took the picture so I know it's not one from last year. :lol: :D

Mark

[fineandfar]

man... you guys...

great fish jbird. =D>

glad someone is picking one up here and there. Nice pic Mark.

will

[Hairstacker]

Jay, that IS a beast. Nice and thick, what a GREAT fish, congratulations!

[jbird]

Paul

How'd the trip go?

jbird

[bubzilla]

We should have well over 5000 fish over the dam by this date....and I mean WELL over. We only have half that and a bunch of those could be summer downers.

Sorry, but I have to totally disagree here Jay. As a general rule, less than 30 percent of the run goes over Gold Rey by then end of February, and only half by the middle of March. Since a typical run from the last 20 years is more often than not going to have fewer than 10,000 fish, we really shouldn't have more than 5,000 fish over the dam by now. The run is right on track for what will probably be its size. Although I agree those counts necessarily include some late-arriving summers.

With the exceptions of 2002, 2003, and 2004--when the river got epic runs that it has not really had before since they began counting and will more than likely not have again in the foreseeable future--there are seldom more than about 3000 fish over the dam by then end of February. There were just over 1700 over the dam by the end of February this year. The count for the middle of March this year (as of the 19th) was just over 3400. Which makes it bad, but not even the worst in the last ten years--let alone in the entire history of recorded counts on the river. Fact is, this is more typical than it is out of the ordinary in terms of numbers. Everyone just has 20,000 fish brain. That's was what was way out of the norm. Let me be blunt: get used to it everyone, those times of 20,000 fish have come and gone. Years from now we'll refer to them as the "good old days."

We should get somewhere in the neighborhood of 6,000 fish by the end of the count (May 15) this year I would guess. Maybe slightly more given how the pace has picked up lately--as it should this time of year. Not great, but closer to average than 20,000. Pretty much runs like we had in 1998, and 1994 for recent comparisons. Not really that out of the ordinary, unfortunately.

Hopefully Gordon will chime in here. I know he has a chart that shows the return numbers for something like 40 years. The only complaint I have with using straight averages is they use the outlier years that just occurred which really scew the numbers a lot. Those years, as a practical matter, we got what were runs twice as large as "normal". Take those out, and you get a pretty good picture of what a typical run looks like. As painful as it might seem, numbers wise they look a lot more like this year than they do like the big number years of recent memory.


http://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish_counts/goldray_fish_count.html

P.S. just found the chart Gordon sent me on my computer. The 61 year average for winters on the Rogue is a total run size of 9772 fish. And, I assume that includes the very atypical years of 2002, 2003, and 2004 as well.

[Paul Meyers]

Hi jbird,

Sorry for the late reply, when out on 3/17.

Got two fish (18 and 20). Did the float from Dodge down to Tu Vello (sp?). I figured I knew the float and as alone, safe bet not to get into too much trouble. Also stopped at the tackle shop in Shady Cove and talked to a couple of guides heading out. Took their recommendation. Plus they were head for the hatchery to shady drift.

A few other people fishing, but not many for a Saturday. Most didn't catch anything. One guide did have clients that caught serveral trout. I think they were focusing on them.

Hope this late report helps,

Paul