American River Water Flow Projection Question

[Salmonriver]

I know this has been discussed before and I went back and looked through some old posts however I could not find where to go to find what the "projected" flows are. I know the CDEC site is available, but it only shows what is currently happening and not what they are projecting. Is there any real info on this, I know Bill has been able to post projected flows and wondered where he finds that. Thanks

[Rossflyguy]

I think that info is only available when they decide to bump it up. Other than that it’s dependent on rain. Bill posted what they plan on bumping it up to out of Nimbus for now. There’s no crystal ball.

[STEELIES/26c3]

I know this has been discussed before and I went back and looked through some old posts however I could not find where to go to find what the "projected" flows are. I know the CDEC site is available, but it only shows what is currently happening and not what they are projecting. Is there any real info on this, I know Bill has been able to post projected flows and wondered where he finds that. Thanks


There is a way to get projected flows from NOAA and CDEC sites but they are merely that (projections).

Here is the most relevant projection to my area (from CDEC)

SACRAMENTO RIVER AT I STREET BRIDGE
7:00 AM STAGE: 9.2 FT
FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 9.2 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.0 FT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 10.2 FT LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.9 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 10.0 FT THURSDAY NEAR MIDNIGHT
THEN FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 10.0 FT THRU FRIDAY MORNING
MONITOR STAGE: 27.5 FT, FLOOD STAGE: 33.5 FT, DANGER STAGE: 34.5 FT


The rest is guesswork. If you've fished or lived and monitored flows for 30 years in the area, you get pretty good at estimating dam releases based not only on weather but also on time of year and amount of annual rain and snowfall and accumulation.

No one however could have predicted that Sacramento would get 2.38" of rain in one day.

That is the only reason the American River went up from 2000 to 3500 the next day. I am pretty certain, it will go back down in a week or less because water coming in should lessen and I believe DWR wants to maintain Lake Folsom at around 54% capacity in January and it is currently at 56%.

Hope that helps...

[Salmonriver]

There is a way to get projected flows from NOAA and CDEC sites but they are merely that (projections).

Here is the most relevant projection to my area (from CDEC)

SACRAMENTO RIVER AT I STREET BRIDGE
7:00 AM STAGE: 9.2 FT
FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 9.2 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.0 FT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 10.2 FT LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 10.9 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 10.0 FT THURSDAY NEAR MIDNIGHT
THEN FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 10.0 FT THRU FRIDAY MORNING
MONITOR STAGE: 27.5 FT, FLOOD STAGE: 33.5 FT, DANGER STAGE: 34.5 FT


The rest is guesswork. If you've fished or lived and monitored flows for 30 years in the area, you get pretty good at estimating dam releases based not only on weather but also on time of year and amount of annual rain and snowfall and accumulation.

No one however could have predicted that Sacramento would get 2.38" of rain in one day.

That is the only reason the American River went up from 2000 to 3500 the next day. I am pretty certain, it will go back down in a week or less because water coming in should lessen and I believe DWR wants to maintain Lake Folsom at around 54% capacity in January and it is currently at 56%.

Hope that helps...

Thank you very much !!!

[Troutsource]

Has the secondary spillway altered the math for releases? Seems like they should be able to hold more water back, wait longer to pull the trigger.

[STEELIES/26c3]

Has the secondary spillway altered the math for releases? Seems like they should be able to hold more water back, wait longer to pull the trigger.

I believe that's why DWR has held on to more water this year. They know that they can dispense a greater volume at once if necessary.

This has been a strange winter though. We have had mostly sunny, dry weather and then 2 sudden onslaughts of heavy rains. I think were at 7 inches since October and in a normal year we would be 7.5 inches. The weather forecast is also looking pretty dry in the next 10 days so I don't expect the 3500 cfs flow to persist.

I don't know much about the new dam and its capabilities. I know they had a lot of problems with the engineering of it.

[Desmo13]

What flows are acceptable for drift boating?