Great Start of 2017- Weather

[cdevine]

Sierra's are getting pounded to start the new year. Expect up too 4 feet of snow above 7500 feet by Thursday on the west slope and 18-24 inches on the ground in Truckee. Another wetter warmer storm arrives after expected to deliver another 2 feet this weekend. Snow levels started off around 1800 feet this morning and at resort level its in the teens and snowing. That rare Utah "powder." Roads are an absolute disaster right now. BE safe.

Last year at this time the Truckee was flowing at 140-150 CFS. Today its 400 CFS in the canyon. Our water situation continues to improve. Going to be a really good season just like last spring/summer. This snowpack is just what the doctor ordered.

[Dick]

So far the east side just has wind as of 2:30PM 1-2-17. Send some over this way.

[cdevine]

So far the east side just has wind as of 2:30PM 1-2-17. Send some over this way.

Some of that area on 395 is getting shadowed right now. But good news is all of those mtns that feed walker river basin are getting pounded off Sonora pass. I'm sure you have noticed the difference in topaz lake though.

[Dick]

Some of that area on 395 is getting shadowed right now. But good news is all of those mtns that feed walker river basin are getting pounded off Sonora pass. I'm sure you have noticed the difference in topaz lake though.

The West Walker has been running very well and Topaz is up a reported 12 feet from last year at this time. Right now blue sky overhead.

[Morgan]

Sierra's are getting pounded to start the new year. Expect up too 4 feet of snow above 7500 feet by Thursday on the west slope and 18-24 inches on the ground in Truckee. Another wetter warmer storm arrives after expected to deliver another 2 feet this weekend. Snow levels started off around 1800 feet this morning and at resort level its in the teens and snowing. That rare Utah "powder." Roads are an absolute disaster right now. BE safe.

Last year at this time the Truckee was flowing at 140-150 CFS. Today its 400 CFS in the canyon. Our water situation continues to improve. Going to be a really good season just like last spring/summer. This snowpack is just what the doctor ordered.

Sounds like you may want to apply for a job as a weather man.
And as good as all this weather is your report from off the hill sounds quite optimistic. Don't believe all you hear.
Us folks who actually live in the mountains don't believe the weather reports. They are wrong 95% of the time.
This storm has been down graded numerous times throughout the last couple days.
The North shore got hit good last night...the south shore not so much.
Your 2ft this weekend is looking like rain according to the weatherman already. Global warming? What's that? ;)

These days I believe the weather when I see it. Even then, it will lie to you and change in a heart beat.

[John Sv]

It has been pounding in truckee. NWS has upgraded to another foot tonight before the big storm comes in tomorrow nite. Already took tomorrow AM off to ski some pow!!! :)

[cdevine]

Sounds like you may want to apply for a job as a weather man.
And as good as all this weather is your report from off the hill sounds quite optimistic. Don't believe all you hear.
Us folks who actually live in the mountains don't believe the weather reports. They are wrong 95% of the time.
This storm has been down graded numerous times throughout the last couple days.
The North shore got hit good last night...the south shore not so much.
Your 2ft this weekend is looking like rain according to the weatherman already. Global warming? What's that? ;)

These days I believe the weather when I see it. Even then, it will lie to you and change in a heart beat.


Hey Debbie downer why such the long face? Not sure what rain shadow you live in but it's dumping in the Sierras. Just got back and west slope already has 18-20 inches today. Total mess There will be 4 feet by Thursday with another 5 plus inches of rain in the foothills. I fish these rivers and lakes basically year round (where I can) and I'm looking forward to great water.

[Morgan]

Hey Debbie downer why such the long face? Not sure what rain shadow you live in but it's dumping in the Sierras. Just got back and west slope already has 18-20 inches today. Total mess There will be 4 feet by Thursday with another 5 plus inches of rain in the foothills. I fish these rivers and lakes basically year round (where I can) and I'm looking forward to great water.

I live in South Lake Tahoe. I do live and fish here year round.
We have gotten about a foot. No where near pounded like they stated so far.
And you talk rain shadow...we have had more rain in December up here in Tahoe than I have seen in over a decade. But don't get me wrong, I love your fishing reports,

[cdevine]

I live in South Lake Tahoe. I do live and fish here year round.
We have gotten about a foot. No where near pounded like they stated so far.
And you talk rain shadow...we have had more rain in December up here in Tahoe than I have seen in over a decade. But don't get me wrong, I love your fishing reports,


Hopefully you are digging out today! Or trying to stay on top of it. I read 20 inches of snow in Truckee town and still coming. Boreal up on Donner summit is over 30 inches. I think the weather people may have gotten this one correct. Some of the models are showing 5-7 Feet out of this system. Hello average snowpack!

Yeah I fish year round as well. I haven't been east of Reno on the truckee since 2013 due to the drought but that might be my only truckee option for awhile.

Keep it coming!

[Grassgrower]

Here is a link to the current snow sensors.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PAGE6

[John Sv]

It is deeeeep
Hope the AR coming in this weekend doesn't screw things up

Hopefully you are digging out today! Or trying to stay on top of it. I read 20 inches of snow in Truckee town and still coming. Boreal up on Donner summit is over 30 inches. I think the weather people may have gotten this one correct. Some of the models are showing 5-7 Feet out of this system. Hello average snowpack!

Yeah I fish year round as well. I haven't been east of Reno on the truckee since 2013 due to the drought but that might be my only truckee option for awhile.

Keep it coming!

[bigfly]

John, not sure how long you've lived up here.......but this isn't even winter as I know it.
Less than a foot in town...
I used to live in fear of three feet in an evening and the another three the next day....and so on.
It's taken three days just to get that foot we do have..and traditionally in Jan. we get the least precip. of any month.
Unless the sky falls in Feb. and Mar. we are still on course for serious drought.
And optimism is just air, heated.....part of global warming I guess......

Jim

[John Sv]

20 years
Sugar Bowl was DEEEEEEEEPPPPPPPPPP!!! Face shots galore!!!!
Edit: except where it was not deep (the stump i hit)
Yes, Prosser is still not deep. But I got the blower out which was unused the past 2/


John, not sure how long you've lived up here.......but this isn't even winter as I know it.
Less than a foot in town...
I used to live in fear of three feet in an evening and the another three the next day....and so on.
It's taken three days just to get that foot we do have..and traditionally in Jan. we get the least precip. of any month.
Unless the sky falls in Feb. and Mar. we are still on course for serious drought.
And optimism is just air, heated.....part of global warming I guess......

Jim

[bigfly]

Glad you got some John......
Not saying we didn't get any....but one mild storm isn't gonna do it.....
A season like 2011 is what it will take to help with the drought.
Two years ago, when I looked at the crest in Jan. it was pretty close to where we are now.
That's what made me take a summer trip. And that was the worst water year I've seen here.
Everyone should think good thoughts....but babbling about how it is so far, is mostly premature and historically uniformed....
But carry on......

Jim

[John Sv]

agreed but going with the glass is half full scenario.

This winter is going to go bigly yuge!
I might have to take tomorrow morning off too!
Will remember to bring a second pair of socks and base layer though, unlike today. Makes for a cold wet afternoon at the office

[Troutstalker55B]

John, not sure how long you've lived up here.......but this isn't even winter as I know it.
Less than a foot in town...
I used to live in fear of three feet in an evening and the another three the next day....and so on.
It's taken three days just to get that foot we do have..and traditionally in Jan. we get the least precip. of any month.
Unless the sky falls in Feb. and Mar. we are still on course for serious drought.
And optimism is just air, heated.....part of global warming I guess......

Jim

Jim,

I lived in Truckee from 86 through 91, and my family shared a summer cabin on the Truckee River between town and Pole Creek in the early to mid 70's. Were you there then? Lots of change, and lots of growth since that era. I grew up in Paradise and the region used to get some big dumps for a 2200 foot elevation. in 69 we got a 3 foot dump in one storm. It doesn't do that anymore, climate change is real. - J.

[Dick]

Still waiting in this part of Mono County. Wind but zilch on the moisture.

[bigfly]

No John, I came to Truckee in 90.
Spent two decades before that in the So.Sierra.
Lived in "mmolehill in Mamoth...
Had two leave the house by the second story door. No light coming in any downstairs windows......
Scary deep............
I kinda miss those days.....it kept out the riff raff...it wasn't a life style back then, just life.

Jim

[John Sv]

Jeez guys
Yes climate change is real. No it hasn't snowed as big as it used to.
In my years here I have seen a few good winters. This is not like that...so far. But heck, even 11 had a slow January. I remember mountain biking on prosser hill in January.

But we gotta be like salmon and keep swimming upstream right?

[bigfly]

One thing you learn up here is not all snow is created equal..
2-3 feet of fluff on 2 feet of base is not much. Base is all that counts............
That three feet of fresh fluff will pack down to a foot....and if we get the rain they are calling for...we are screwed.
And John I don't have a problem with a local stoking us.....reading it online and reporting, is an interpolation not expirience.....

Jim

[yubaman]

I just came back down from our place in Donner today. There is plenty more rain/ snow on the way! The forecast I was looking at was talking about 4 more feet by Friday?! More snow next week following a break on Saturday. There is hope!

I did fish the Truckee on Friday, and man there was almost no snow on the banks then, but this will be a nice change from that.

[cdevine]

This cracks me up....
Yubaman- Sorry we can't take your forecast because you only live in Donner part time. Looks like you might have a residence down in the east bay as well so we will give you partial credit. Is that cool? I've been fishing the Truckee since the late 70's. Caught my first fish on the Truckee below river ranch. Parents had a cabin in Donner growing up. A local hangout for a lot of bay area folks. Now I'm lucky enough to live 90 minutes away. I'm up on the Truckee so much my kids just asked me if I caught a brown today..... Ha ha... Actually I had to work and yeah the bay area was mess. That storm and wind is coming. I just got off 80.

Drought.... Don't think so. Keep them debbie downer pills popping. I will keep fishing and being thankful for our liquid gold.

[bigfly]

Didn't mention yuba man..
Didn't mention if you fish here...
Have fun predicting weather...
It just doesn't match what I see.
Bottom line....that's all that matters.
What we see...not what we hope for.
Trees are starting to shed, and light rain is beginning..
A downer for sure....maybe if I get real positive it will freeze?
I was here for 96-97 and know how little we have and how fast it can go.
Not sure how optimism really comes into play.....I've been picturing phat winters since I was little......and this is my third 6 year drought...and counting.
But hey...be a booster, it isn't illegal.
Kind of amusing to some readers up here.


Jim

[Troutstalker55B]

No John, I came to Truckee in 90.
Spent two decades before that in the So.Sierra.
Lived in "mmolehill in Mamoth...
Had two leave the house by the second story door. No light coming in any downstairs windows......
Scary deep............
I kinda miss those days.....it kept out the riff raff...it wasn't a life style back then, just life.

Jim

Wow Jim, Thanks for sharing.

[bigfly]

Jon, Wish we had met back then....
To be honest, I came up to Truckee in 82, and ran away.....too much of a good thing...
Looked, and felt like the return of the ice age......thought that was normal......hasn't been that way since.
After some thought....maybe predicting the Sierra weather is like being a Redsocks fan......sooner or later you'll be right...apology to socks fans...I may get thumped for that tomo...
And apparently the white light positivism works....it's gone back to snowing. ....Oooops, back to rain.....
I recommend staying clear right now.....about as ugly as it gets road-wise here now.....the fish will wait.

Jim

[Morgan]

This cracks me up....
Yubaman- Sorry we can't take your forecast because you only live in Donner part time. Looks like you might have a residence down in the east bay as well so we will give you partial credit. Is that cool? I've been fishing the Truckee since the late 70's. Caught my first fish on the Truckee below river ranch. Parents had a cabin in Donner growing up. A local hangout for a lot of bay area folks. Now I'm lucky enough to live 90 minutes away. I'm up on the Truckee so much my kids just asked me if I caught a brown today..... Ha ha... Actually I had to work and yeah the bay area was mess. That storm and wind is coming. I just got off 80.

Drought.... Don't think so. Keep them debbie downer pills popping. I will keep fishing and being thankful for our liquid gold.


Partial Credit for part time residence=No.
Do you get partial credit for finishing half your paper? No.
So your east bay forecast doesn't equal anything relative to a Sierra forecast except for what's seen on Tv or via the Interweb.

Early this morning was warm and sleet/rain. Not snow. It was melting.

[Morgan]

And boom! There goes the first and second avalanche blast.
Report that from the bay ;)

What's fishing without shit talking?

[JasonB]

Glad you got some John......
Not saying we didn't get any....but one mild storm isn't gonna do it.....
A season like 2011 is what it will take to help with the drought.
Two years ago, when I looked at the crest in Jan. it was pretty close to where we are now.
That's what made me take a summer trip. And that was the worst water year I've seen here.
Everyone should think good thoughts....but babbling about how it is so far, is mostly premature and historically uniformed....
But carry on......

Jim

It's all speculation still at this point, good or bad. Remember that back in 2011 (ahhh the good year!) by the end of January we were looking at a major drought looming, all that nice sunshine carried into the middle of February before the skies unloaded storm after storm on us. I do remember having some pretty sweet days fishing the Truckee that winter in that 6 week dry spell! My fingers are crossed, and depending on where you look in the state we are in a lot better shape than the last few years already. Of course all that can change pretty quickly, for the better or for the worse...
JB

[yubaman]

Ha . . . true that! I must bow to Jim, I see where 5+" of rain are predicted for the Truckee area on just the weekend. That will probably lead to some time on the couch with those Torpedo IPA's that you always have in hand I imagine? At least last weekend we had the Bowl games.

We hope for the best. I am betting that the Yuba could push the 100K cfs number come Sunday or Monday. I imagine a big number for the T as well.

[cyama]

With Grass Valley predicted to get as much as nine inches of rain over the next week the Yuba will be gushing brown water. My prediction is about 50,000 CFS. If it gets up to 100K they may need to evacuate Marysville again.

[yubaman]

Chris,

I was always wondering when I might be able to paddle up to the Happy Viking in Yuba City in my canoe for some chicken wings and a large Hefeweizen. This maybe the weekend?

[k9mark]

Read a report that by the end of the next ten days the sierra will have received twenty feet of snow.

[cdevine]

Read a report that by the end of the next ten days the sierra will have received twenty feet of snow.

Yup. The totals so far are ridiculous.... 70-85 inches on the west slope and Mammoth is approaching 100 inches from this storm. Up to 10 feet is expected above 9k feet out of this next series. Beginning of the week we were between 55-70% of normal when they did survey. Today we are between 130-170%. Love it. Biggest risk now is this AR which is expected to flush a lot of the low snow down river. Bummer but the high stuff is going to stay and accumulate more when a colder system comes in right after.

I'm sure somebody knows but in terms of storms would you classify this as a 10 year or 20 year type event?

[yubaman]

They are classifying this as a 1 in 25 year event. Time to get the honey, lemon and brandy out for the weekend and make sure the couch is centered in prime viewing position for the NFL playoffs. Jim , head to Bevmo for those Sierra Nevada Torpedos while you can.

[Larry S]

Steve Taylor has a great site - http://mammothsnowman.com/
Lots of great pics, info, and links to webcams. Probably going to need a snowmobile or
snow shoes to access the Upper Owens.
Best,
Larry S

[bigfly]

Since most know the Glennshire parking lot on the T near town, I thought it was a fair place to measure.......
On the flat and no drifts, I found 10". Perhaps the forecast was for the tops of the crest, but here it was not huge....
This report is accurate, because it's local.....and not a resort report.
The river is clear and beautiful, and fishy.

http://i905.photobucket.com/albums/ac260/Bigfly1/Clients/20170105_135400.jpg (http://s905.photobucket.com/user/Bigfly1/media/Clients/20170105_135400.jpg.html)

I hope it's still here after this weekend....

Jim

[cmcdhuibh]

Jim thats what I need is a popup truck camper...
Weather underground has a flood warning out for the Truckee?
Though I'm not in Estes Park Co. (home) right now, it was -20* this morning.

[bigfly]

Weather is hard to predict.....we will see.
Nobody was ready for 96-97. I saw 3 feet of powder disappear in 48hrs.
When you hear large boulders cracking like marbles underwater, you are a believer in flash melts..
Now they know that basically we can lose a bunch of the pack at any time.
All it takes is a little warm rain......

I've had the pop-up almost 10 years....works well.

Jim

[Morgan]

Since most know the Glennshire parking lot on the T near town, I thought it was a fair place to measure.......
On the flat and no drifts, I found 10". Perhaps the forecast was for the tops of the crest, but here it was not huge....
This report is accurate, because it's local.....and not a resort report.
The river is clear and beautiful, and fishy.

http://i905.photobucket.com/albums/ac260/Bigfly1/Clients/20170105_135400.jpg (http://s905.photobucket.com/user/Bigfly1/media/Clients/20170105_135400.jpg.html)

I hope it's still here after this weekend....

Jim

I love it Jim! A first hand report! Seems the resorts really hype of these storms to get the visitors pouring up the mountains.
Well I saw the river across the street hit flood stage yesterday. The snow started slow in the morning.
But now the snow is up to the tops of the subaru wheel wells this am.
Keep it coming baby!

[bigfly]

http://i905.photobucket.com/albums/ac260/Bigfly1/Clients/20170110_1002001.jpg (http://s905.photobucket.com/user/Bigfly1/media/Clients/20170110_1002001.jpg.html)

I figure, if it's not first hand....it's speculation.
When you have to shovel it, it's pretty real......

Jim

[John Sv]

Double post on a concurrent thread
Deleted

[Digger]

October (the start of the water year) was a wet month, something like 400% of normal precipitation in most of the Sierra's.
December was the wettest month since 2010.

most of the recent events (storms) this season have been originating off the eastern Pacific and south of Hawaii then directly driving into California.
These Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are much warmer/wetter than those that drop south out of the Gulf of Ak.
bringing the dreaded Sierra Cement us skiers generally don't prefer, with snow to water ratios ~10:1
This is what we've come to expect of the El Nino winters of the past, like '82-'83.
When the cold storms drop out of AK, we get the dry powder ratios like 12:1 or champagne powder 15:1 :-)
I suspect this colder system currently upon us will bring some great skiable fluff.
if you can get up there.

Right now the automated snow sensors (not as accurate as manual snow course measurements at the first of each month) tell us the water content of the snow is:
- Northern Sierra/Trinity basins avg = 111% for this date
- Central Sierra's avg = 130 %
- Southern Sierra's avg = 171%

with many reservoirs already reaching historical averages or higher, and another 2 1/2 months of possible precip, this drought could be history. Pretty much everywhere north of S.F./Sac already is drought free.
It's been a long five years.
Not bad for weak La Nina conditions.

[cdevine]

October (the start of the water year) was a wet month, something like 400% of normal precipitation in most of the Sierra's.
December was the wettest month since 2010.

most of the recent events (storms) this season have been originating off the eastern Pacific and south of Hawaii then directly driving into California.
These Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are much warmer/wetter than those that drop south out of the Gulf of Ak.
bringing the dreaded Sierra Cement us skiers generally don't prefer, with snow to water ratios ~10:1
This is what we've come to expect of the El Nino winters of the past, like '82-'83.
When the cold storms drop out of AK, we get the dry powder ratios like 12:1 or champagne powder 15:1 :-)
I suspect this colder system currently upon us will bring some great skiable fluff.
if you can get up there.

Right now the automated snow sensors (not as accurate as manual snow course measurements at the first of each month) tell us the water content of the snow is:
- Northern Sierra/Trinity basins avg = 111% for this date
- Central Sierra's avg = 130 %
- Southern Sierra's avg = 171%

with many reservoirs already reaching historical averages or higher, and another 2 1/2 months of possible precip, this drought could be history. Pretty much everywhere north of S.F./Sac already is drought free.
It's been a long five years.
Not bad for weak La Nina conditions.


This storm has been one for the ages. Historic in strength and delivered numbers. I guess the weather people got this one right. Digger, I think those % are understated. I've seen revised totals in the 200%+ and coming up. It has been a long 5 years. Lets hope some normalcy returns and we can enjoy the gifts of mother nature.

[John Sv]

This storm is not particularly cold. I live by prosser reservoir so pretty low and we have gotten a lot of heavy wet snow. At about 10 last night it switched to rain for a little bit. What we get today and tomorrow should be nice and skiable but with the wind and the sheer depth of fresh I think today is dig out day at the mountains.

[JasonB]

http://i905.photobucket.com/albums/ac260/Bigfly1/Clients/20170110_1002001.jpg (http://s905.photobucket.com/user/Bigfly1/media/Clients/20170110_1002001.jpg.html)

I figure, if it's not first hand....it's speculation.
When you have to shovel it, it's pretty real......

Jim

Now THAT is what I like to see! Sorry about all the shoveling, just think of all that water that this will mean for the river and it's trout. It's been too long since we've been in a drought, and it makes me so happy to see full rivers, and snow in the mountains. I would imagine you got a lot more last night? The rain was pounding the foothills around here last night!
JB

[JasonB]

Not sure if everyone has this link or not: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.pdf
It's a quick, simple snow/water content plot for the northern, central, and southern mountains. Not a detailed basin by basin accounting, but I like this one because it's simple and shows comparative years in a graph form. Looks like for the central part of the state we're at 130% of average to date (57% of the April 1st total snowpack accumulation). So, there is still plenty of room for speculation, up or down; but for now I think I'm going to remain highly optimistic. I'm enjoying seeing things in a much better state, water wise, than we've seen since 2011.
JB

[cdevine]

Cool link JB. Thanks for sharing. It will be interesting to see how all the numbers tally up when things clear out by Friday. My mom got almost 10 inches of rain in Sonoma County yesterday. That area of the state is no longer "technically" in a drought. I live close to Folsom Lake and Green Valley Road was totally flooded yesterday and the lake came up 20 feet since in last 2 days!
The resorts over report snow (we all know) but in a year like this what is the difference between saying we got 8 feet vs 7 feet out of this storm. MT Rose will have over 400 inches this season by end of the week. That is unheard of from the eastern side. Would be great to see a 600 inch season at some of our wetter resorts. Def coming out of this in great shape with a lot of winter left.

[mattv-mcfly]

Does anyone know how much water Lake Berryessa needs for me to see some glory hole action? I've never seen it and I'm curious. :p

[cmcdhuibh]

The glory hole is at 443' ish if I remember right. Most years it doesn't get to it. Our gauge was if the park below our trailer at Rancho Montecllo was at water level it was going over.

[Digger]

Not sure if everyone has this link or not: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.pdf
It's a quick, simple snow/water content plot for the northern, central, and southern mountains. Not a detailed basin by basin accounting, but I like this one because it's simple and shows comparative years in a graph form. Looks like for the central part of the state we're at 130% of average to date (57% of the April 1st total snowpack accumulation). So, there is still plenty of room for speculation, up or down; but for now I think I'm going to remain highly optimistic. I'm enjoying seeing things in a much better state, water wise, than we've seen since 2011.
JB

I guess you didn't see my post #42

[TyV]

Thought I would share a link as well. I find it the most useful snowpack data site available. I find this link hard to find unless I use my saved bookmark. Hope some of you folks find it useful as well:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action

FYI, this is the best snowpack we have had in January for quite a few years. Keep it coming please!

Fish On
Ty

[cyama]

Mattv-mcfly. A good website for Lake Berryessa is http://lakeberryessanews.com. It looks like there is a ways to go for the Glory Hole to dump out the silt. The site shows a closure to Putah Creek interdam region Apparently a ton of silt has ruined our spawning gravel projects this fall. The fires up the in the canyon over the past two years did not help the fish. By the way your website gives some great local advice!!

[JasonB]

I guess you didn't see my post #42

I did see your post, and wasn't trying to step on your toes. Just thought that some folks might not have seen found the link, and might enjoy it.
cheers,
JB

[Morgan]

1259712598It flat out nuked up here this week!
We spent the last 2 days digging out our house and rd.

[cdevine]

1259712598It flat out nuked up here this week!
We spent the last 2 days digging out our house and rd.



What a storm! The numbers are staggering. Last year at this time 97% of the state was in a drought. Today that number stands at 42% and that will continue to climb as we continue to see these storms line up. The southern state is still in trouble but where most of us fish is not. 9-10 feet at Tahoe Resorts. More like 14+ down at Mammoth. When was the last time resorts were closed for 4 consecutive days? I'm going to try and get out with the kiddos for some boarding soon.

Some really cool before and after pics on the below link.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/before-after-storm-California-flood-ca-drought-10851105.php