Middle Rogue Steelhead

[Langenbeck]

Ventured out at mid http://img.photobucket.com/albums/1003/gordonl/059B8794-8ACA-43EF-AD64-BB8911487EA8_zpsdkdan9rg.jpg (http://smg.photobucket.com/user/gordonl/media/059B8794-8ACA-43EF-AD64-BB8911487EA8_zpsdkdan9rg.jpg.html)
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/1003/gordonl/0241511A-15A4-41F2-AA39-867B48242129_zpsktwe83ud.jpg (http://smg.photobucket.com/user/gordonl/media/0241511A-15A4-41F2-AA39-867B48242129_zpsktwe83ud.jpg.html)
Hooked two adults and landed this bright 25" wild fish on the swing. It has been a very poor year on the Rogue.

[Bill Kiene semi-retired]

You can see the beauty in that wild fish.......

[Mark Kranhold]

Nice job Gordon! Looks like you got a new were ACR with the black finish, what Rod are you swinging ?

[Langenbeck]

It is an ARC 11'7", 6 wt. 4 piece. A very nice rod.

[yubaman]

Nice hens! Any intel on the poor fishing? Is it a light run of fish?

[Langenbeck]

My theory is a terrible salmon run and protracted high water as we had about 12"s of rain in Grants Pass in October

[Chazbowski]

Heading to the Rogue for the long weekend. Looks like flows will be heading up with the rain. Any advice on spots that might fish better with the higher flows? I imagine closer to the dam will stay pretty constant. Thanks!

[Langenbeck]

Would stay above Shady Cove as we are expected lots of high water this weekend.

[pvsprme]

Regarding Gordon's comment on the poor year for the Rogue, seems typical for the entire West Coast below BC, where the Skeena system had the best run in decades. Go figure. My fly club hosted Chris O'Donnell as a guest speaker November 4th where he told us the Deschutes and entire Columbia Basin had a very tough year. My personal experience on the Trinity confirms this, no fish in October, 4 in 5 days November 6-10th. Three fish were one-salt hatchery brats, 24-25", one wild fish of 20" that outfought all three others combined. I was really disappointed in that despite perfect conditions for surface action; water 52 degrees, overcast/ low light, October caddis still around I got no love from the top. Hoping December shapes up better. Lots of theories, no evidence for the preponderance of one-salters.
Conversely, my buddy on the Skeena took a 39-1/2" hen and several in upper teens; fishing was lights out there in Sept-October.

[ycflyfisher]

Regarding Gordon's comment on the poor year for the Rogue, seems typical for the entire West Coast below BC, where the Skeena system had the best run in decades. Go figure. My fly club hosted Chris O'Donnell as a guest speaker November 4th where he told us the Deschutes and entire Columbia Basin had a very tough year. My personal experience on the Trinity confirms this, no fish in October, 4 in 5 days November 6-10th. Three fish were one-salt hatchery brats, 24-25", one wild fish of 20" that outfought all three others combined. I was really disappointed in that despite perfect conditions for surface action; water 52 degrees, overcast/ low light, October caddis still around I got no love from the top. Hoping December shapes up better. Lots of theories, no evidence for the preponderance of one-salters.
Conversely, my buddy on the Skeena took a 39-1/2" hen and several in upper teens; fishing was lights out there in Sept-October.

I certainly would not consider myself an expert by any means, but from the scientific data, it's pretty easy to determine what factors create both favorable and deleterious conditions in the salt and inland.

You've got to have decent inland conditions for consecutive seasons to have favorable smolt production when it comes to KMP steelhead because the vast majority of KMP steelhead spend 2 years in freshwater prior to outmigration. That said, in regards to the KMP, you don't need massive (relative) smolt production to get above average or boom year escapements (density dependent survival begins to work against the fish). Favorable conditions in the salt are much more important to strong adult returns in general terms.

We're seeing the results this year of:

1- Impaired inland conditions for premigrant development due to the drought. We got better than average precip for the Sierra and valley watersheds but 2016 was another extremely dry year with less than average precip and snowpack in the KMP. Less flow in the main stems and tribs leads to less habitat and less favorable conditions for survival to the next lifestages for the fish.

2- Two back to back El Nino seasons. Good for filling depleted valley and Sierra reservoirs, but extremely bad for ocean survival of anadromous salmonids. El Nino conditions bring higher than average near surface temps which leads to weak upwelling. Strong upwelling is necessary to bring abundant amounts of smaller prey (phyto/zooplankton, etc) to near surface levels. Outmigrating salmonids are small fish that simply don't have enough adipose tissue to weather long periods of caloric deficit. They need to find surplus calories and they need to find them almost immediately once they hit the salt or they perish. We've never had an El Nino that didn't absolutely hammer KMP steelhead abundance down. El Ninos have a similar but less drastic effect on all WC steelhead.

Also, 1 salt KMP steelhead are significantly smaller than you're surmising. I'm pretty sure I've got all the available Life History vs size data for the CA KMP rivers (all then known published data and the two DFG drafts (Lee and Hopelain) and here's some numbers:

3 distinct "pounder" LHs: 1/h, 2/h, 3/h and an average weighted median (AWM) pounder size of 14.2".

2 distinct "1 salt" LHs: 1/h1s and 2/h1s and an AWM of 20.3"

6 distinct "2 salt" LHs: 1/h2s, 1h1.1s, 1/1.1s,2/h2s, 2/h1.1s and 2/1.1s with an AWM of 23.92"

6 distinct "3 salt" LHs with an AWM of 26.45"

About 15 more "3+ salt" LHs. Lots of variance here but 3+ salt fish in the CA KMP rivers represent a very low (~2%) of the total run composition.

Note that in the KMP data, a H- pounder migration does not count as a year "in the salt".

So in all likelihood, the fish you're calling 1 salt fish are really Typical 2 salt, fall fish in the KMP.

On the T, "2 salt" is the most common LH phenotype with about 65-70 of the total adult run composition falling into the 2 salt LH.

Not counting the mythically huge "Ghost Run" fish (huge multisalt fish, but a very small %age of the total winter-run composition) that seem to be destined for unknown destination(s) somewhere in the Mid-Klamath, 95+% of the CA KMP winter run follows nearly identical LHs to the fall run. Couple that with the fact that most years the CA KMP winters are only about 30-40% as abundant as fall-run, and I'm not seeing a boom winter on the KMP as being very likely.

I'd expect the same dismal trend on most CA coastals this winter, with the possible (but not likely) exceptions being coastals where most of the fish present are streamborn fish (more than a year inland) where 3+ salt LHs are common. Those fish would be the progeny of fish from earlier age classes than the KMP fish which failed epically this fall. Those fish would have had a year or two in the salt prior to the El Ninos and would not have been AS dependent on the upwelling of smaller prey as the KMP fish. That said, El ninos tend to have a deleterious outcome on the entire food web.

Also, the fact that the Skeena had a better than average year isn't all that shocking. BC fish typically spend 3-4 years inland before they're mature enough to smolt due to less favorable conditions for inland growth than we have here in CA, and Skeena fish tend to sport 3+salt LHs. The Skeena fish that returned this year were all from much earlier age classes than the KMP fish and were all 5+ pounds or better before they encountered El Nino conditions.

On the potential "good news" side, despite how unseasonably warm it was through Oct, it's looking like the Pacific is headed for a La Nina, which brings colder near surface temps and stronger potential upwelling. I can see next fall at least bringing avg or better abundance of 20"ish 1 salt adults and a return to nuisance levels of pounders which sets up fall 2018 for avg or better abundance on 1+ salt fish.

[pvsprme]

Good information, thanks for the lesson. Could you clarify a couple of items?
? is KMP-Klamath ??
LH & LH1, LH2, LH3?

[Tim P]

@ycff thanks for the thoughtful post. Interesting info.


Good information, thanks for the lesson. Could you clarify a couple of items?
? is KMP-Klamath ??
LH & LH1, LH2, LH3?

I believe KMP = Klamath Mountain Province & LH = life history

[ycflyfisher]

Tim's correct. The KMP is a geological/geo-eco region that encompasses the lower K and the lower Rogue and their respective tribs. Steelhead from those two watersheds (the KMP) are grouped together under the same distinct population segment for conservation purposes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_history_theory

LHs of steelhead and other anadromous salmonids are typically defined by the following life benchmarks: years in fresh water/ years in the salt and spawning events. So a fish with a 2/h.1s LH spent it's 1st 2 years of life inland, hit the salt and in it's 3rd year of life and returned on a pounder run and outmigrated and spent it's 4th year (or portions of) in the salt and returned for it's first spawning run.

The LH vs size data I have is for the CA KMP only, and isn't influenced by Rogue fish.

Also, nix what I originally said about a potential average or better return of 1 salters in 2017. The pounder return this year was nothing short of abysmal and all the recorded 1 salt CA KMP fish have a pounder component in their LHs, so we're not likely to see many of those fish next year. Wishful thinking on my part.