Rainzilla?

[Troutsource]

Potentially monstrous rainy/snowy period from 3/5 (late Saturday) through 3/15. 11.5" of rain in the valley and 16.5" liquid equivalent in the mountains (see map below). We've gotten burned many times already this winter by overly optimistic El Nino forecasts, so I'll believe it when I see it. (A few years ago when the drought started in earnest I remember Folsom Lake dumped at 10K+ CFS in anticipation of a storm that never came...). But let me quote some weather porn from my favorite weather blog (www.weatherwest.com)


Weather West Mod • 43 minutes ago
Ensemble runs of both GFS and ECMWF are now suggesting a high likelihood of very heavy precipitation throughout essentially the entire state of California beginning on/around Day 5 and persisting beyond Day 16. Overall jet structure will be favorable for very strong individual storms, which could bring strong winds and thunderstorms at times, although it's still too early to pinpoint these. Very heavy snowfall is likely at upper elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

There is an usually high degree of confidence in a high-impact pattern change beginning in less than a week given very strong multi-model ensemble agreement. Explicit precip forecasts--and subjective pattern recognition--suggest that there could be the potential for significant flood risk by the second week in March.

Obviously, I'll have a blog update at some point soon!

Followed by:


Weather West Mod Weather West • 25 minutes ago
Of particular note: 12Z ECMWF has an absolutely tremendous amount of precip in the 7-14 day period, including a very persistent atmospheric river across NorCal. This will bear close watching.

11727

[Sheepdog8404]

Lets hope that weather system comes through! We need the rain and snow. I'm sure Folsom will open the gates regardless... Seems like they are happy to let more water out than necessary.

[SeanO]

That is good news. I kinda thought the wet stuff was over!

Thanks for posting,

[John Sv]

Open Snow Tahoe is showing a major snow pounding as well.

[Troutsource]

Forecast models (and bloggers) have backed off of the biblical precip. levels -- now only 1/2 to 1/3 of the original forecasts, but still a lot of precip. (if it happens).

[Moose]

Forecast models (and bloggers) have backed off of the biblical precip. levels -- now only 1/2 to 1/3 of the original forecasts, but still a lot of precip. (if it happens).

But still the flows are scheduled to go up. Makes you just want to scream.

[STEELIES/26c3]

Actually, Lake Folsom is equalized.

There's as much coming in as going out and it has yet to drop below 60% since it reached that level of capacity.

The rain alone will increase the inflow in to the lake to 8000 cfs if not more by Saturday and the federal mandate disallows BOR to keep more than 60% of capacity.

I've NEVER been one to say this over many, many seasons... but I actually believe they've done a good job managing the water flows into the river this year~

[Troutsource]

Folsom is in the best shape of all reservoirs, in terms of % of average for this time of year. Luckily the snowpack is better than it has been for a few years -- hopefully that will be the case as we enter summer.

11728

[Digger]

In the "grand scheme" of the Calif drought, Folsom doesn't play a huge part (small capacity)
Shasta & Oroville are the biggies
When I visited Shasta last fall, the view from the top of the dam was incredibly disheartening.
It has nearly trippled the capacity to date.

Snowpack results from this week are averaging 90-100% of normal for Mar 1st.

The drought monitor has improved greatly in the NW corner and all along coast north of Monterey bay.
the central valley and So Cal are still in poor shape.

11734

Let's hope a March Miracle is now in process
the WPC from this morning, shows now to Wednesday with a possible 8 inches along the coast
and up to 10 inches for the Sierra's

11733


Lol, 100 to 120 inches of snow!
We can hope at least

[STEELIES/26c3]

Yah Shasta holds 4.5 million acre feet and is currenty at 2.8 million AF

Flows are coming in to that lake at 50,000 cfs.

Likely won't fill this year but hopefully, it can catch up to its annual average capacity (or close) by May

Oroville holds 2.5 mil AF and is currently at 1.9 mil AF so also has some 'fillin-up' to do.

We sho iz in a lot bedda shape den we bin do~;)

[Digger]

Yah Shasta holds 4.5 million acre feet and is currenty at 2.8 million AF

Flows are coming in to that lake at 50,000 cfs.

Likely won't fill this year but hopefully, it can catch up to its annual average capacity (or close) by May

Oroville holds 2.5 mil AF and is currently at 1.9 mil AF so also has some 'fillin-up' to do.

We sho iz in a lot bedda shape den we bin do~;)


the thing about Shasta that surprised me is that it fills primarily on rainfall?!
90% of it

[STEELIES/26c3]

Inflow to Folsom Lake is 25,000 cfs right now.

My buddy was out fishing the AR and crossed out to an island this morning.

He had a hard time on the way back and if not for another fishing buddy, we both know, he might NOT have made it back.

Be careful where you wade today if you're out there...

[Troutsource]

Looks like we're in for another parade of storms. According to the Sacramento National Weather Service office a storm next weekend could be stronger than the one we just had:
A WET TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS SYSTEM SPLITS AS IT MOVES INLAND, WITH THE SOUTHERN END CUTTING OFF AND MOVING INTO SOCAL AND THEN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP BELOW PASS LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, CAUSING SOME WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRA. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, CONTINUING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW. A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING HEAVY PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS, SIMILAR TO THE PAST WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY MORE. THIS COULD BRING VERY HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND COULD BRING FLOODING ISSUES TO STREAMS AND RIVERS. EK

[Troutsource]

Also, Folsom Lake has lots of debris in it right now from the inflow.

[Rockman]

Here is a thread from my sister about the upper Sacramento River this am. This means Lake Siskiyou is overflowing. What a crazy year there. In early January, I could not launch my boat it was so low. Then came some warm storms which melted a lot of snow and filled it up. Early Febuary it dropped about 10', but the ramp was still allowing you to launch,but it was still going down. Now, it's up and overflowing and flushing the river. May be a tuff season.

Rockman


https://www.facebook.com/RAIDERSROXXME/videos/10207209274483536/

[STEELIES/26c3]

WOW!! Rockman... I wouldn't want to lose my footing in that flow... surely be a dead man...