Flows on the Lower American are dropping?

[MHeuch]

Flows on the Lower American are dropping:

Last week was 1000 CFS and now that it is raining, they dropped it down to 900 CFM.

Does anyone know why?

[Darian]

Speculation: they're capturing all of the run-off in anticipation of low rainfall the rest of the year. Actual: call BuRec at Folsom Dam and ask why or maybe the DWR website has the answer.... :confused:

[STEELIES/26c3]

The answer is simple...

We are in a 4th year of severe drought.

MELTED SNOW, and not rain, determines how fast our reservoirs fill up.

Folsom is still only 26% full and even if we get 5 inches of rain by Friday, all upstream reservoirs as well as aquifers and springs will suck that water up and when all is said and done Folsom MAY rise to about 28/29%% full.

We need about 7 weeks of substantial rain (between now and February) to even make a dent and hopefully, that will be accompanied by 20 ft of snow in the mountains.

Then and only then, will DWR release near-average levels of water to the CA Aqueduct next year.

[STEELIES/26c3]

Rain over the past few days has brought most North Coast rivers up but other than the Smith most have seen only small rises. The local watersheds are all very dry and all this rain is soaking in and so far there has been little runoff.
Most of the rain on Tuesday 12-2 fell south of Garberville with rainfall totals averaging around 1" in Sonoma and Mendocino counties and less than a 1/2 " to the North.
The Smith river is still dropping with a current level of 8.5 feet as of 3:PM today. There are still a few fresh salmon pushing into the Smith but anglers should look ahead to the next big rise as the first and biggest steelhead of the season usually arrive around Christmas.
The upper Klamath river is flowing at a respectable 1800cfs and the steelie action has been great. There are lots of half pounders or 14" to 20" fish in the system with guides reporting "all you want" action.
The middle Trinity at Burnt Ranch is at 1100 cfs where it has been holding the past few days. Guides are seeing 2 to 4 steelies on the Trinity and the salmon season is over
The Eel river at Miranda jumped at high as 10 feet yesterday and is currently at 8.8. The south fork is still closed but it's nice to see the jump in flows which after a long drought will allow salmon to push up and spawn and steelhead to follow shortly.

[Paul B.]

Very nice here now
Doesn't seem unusually low
Lost a big one and landed one a foot long
Quite a few salmon moving through paradise beach area
Cheers. Paul

[Paul B.]

Left at 11:00
I thought it felt a little warm
A local spin fisher had a thermometer and said he took a 58 degree water temp reading
Maybe it is too low

[STEELIES/26c3]

12/04/2014

24
59.5
57.9
58.7


= real time temperature data for Paradise Beach



12/04/2014
24
59.8
57.8
58.8


= real time temperature data for Arden/Goethe



12/04/2014
24
58.4
58.0
58.1


= real time temperature data for Hazel Ave/Dam/Basin

Interestingly, only tenths of a degree difference between water temps at dam and at Paradise Beach

Only a month ago there would have been a 5-6-degree difference.

That's because the bottom draw reservoir (Natoma) usually draws water substantially colder than ambient temperature.

However, in a drought, and with such low lake levels, that difference decreases. Not as much sun to warm the water as it flows down to Paradise either.

58 is good enough. 56 is ideal for spawning salmon but we won't get there for a couple more weeks most likely.

All moot anyway, the low flow more than the temperature dictates whether the steelhead hang around long enough to eat your offering. On most rivers, low water = fish low on the river and high water = fish high on the river but on OUR ARTIFICIAL American River, that all goes out the window as the current strain of hatchery fish has been selected towards shooting immediately up to the hatchery/dam.

I do best from 11:00-2:00 pm for steelies because that is when they are most actively feeding. Cold, wet days are good to fish because of migration and fish being less spooky but as fish are ectothermic critters, they eat better when the water warms up.

From a fly-fishing perspective, it's also a good time for insect activity and particularly emergence so don't let the sun keep you off the water~

[winxp_man]

12/04/2014

24
59.5
57.9
58.7


= real time temperature data for Paradise Beach



12/04/2014
24
59.8
57.8
58.8


= real time temperature data for Arden/Goethe



12/04/2014
24
58.4
58.0
58.1


= real time temperature data for Hazel Ave/Dam/Basin

Interestingly, only tenths of a degree difference between water temps at dam and at Paradise Beach

Only a month ago there would have been a 5-6-degree difference.

That's because the bottom draw reservoir (Natoma) usually draws water substantially colder than ambient temperature.

However, in a drought, and with such low lake levels, that difference decreases. Not as much sun to warm the water as it flows down to Paradise either.

58 is good enough. 56 is ideal for spawning salmon but we won't get there for a couple more weeks most likely.

All moot anyway, the low flow more than the temperature dictates whether the steelhead hang around long enough to eat your offering. On most rivers, low water = fish low on the river and high water = fish high on the river but on OUR ARTIFICIAL American River, that all goes out the window as the current strain of hatchery fish has been selected towards shooting immediately up to the hatchery/dam.

I do best from 11:00-2:00 pm for steelies because that is when they are most actively feeding. Cold, wet days are good to fish because of migration and fish being less spooky but as fish are ectothermic critters, they eat better when the water warms up.

From a fly-fishing perspective, it's also a good time for insect activity and particularly emergence so don't let the sun keep you off the water~


Two thums up for this info! I have been seeing the same last AR steelhead season......

[Paul B.]

Great info
Thank you

[SeanO]

Two thums up for this info! I have been seeing the same last AR steelhead season......

+1, thanks STEELIES/26c3!

[STEELIES/26c3]

Hey Aaron whatsup?

I tried to call you and got a wrong number. Did you change it?

We'll have to hook up soon.


Fish On!

[STEELIES/26c3]

oh yeah...

I should probably say....

All of that info and more is readily available, daily to all via the CDEC website.

You can get past present and sometimes future data on temps, flows, etc...

I have been using the website for many years and it definitely helps me plan my whens and wheres of fishing not just on the American River but on others as well...

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/index.html

[Troutsource]

Folsom Lake is now over 31% full: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?FOL

It went from 277K acre-feet to 310K as a result of last week's rain.

The National Weather Services is talking about a Wednesday-Thursday storm delivering 2-4 inches of rain to the valley, and 5-10 inches liquid equivalent in the foothills and mountains. If this pans out we could be off to a good start this year. Here's the discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=STO&issuedby=STO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[STEELIES/26c3]

YEP I'm believing were on our way out...

of the drought~:)

If we get 2-3 more solid systems and then our typical late-Feb/March rains, we'll be in pretty good shape.

[SeanO]

Don't jinx it!! LOL.

Looking forward to this next system for sure!


YEP I'm believing were on our way out...

of the drought~:)

If we get 2-3 more solid systems and then our typical late-Feb/March rains, we'll be in pretty good shape.

[Scott V]

YEP I'm believing were on our way out...

of the drought~:)

If we get 2-3 more solid systems and then our typical late-Feb/March rains, we'll be in pretty good shape.

We need a lot more than that, the big problem is ground water which you can't see. That is where we need a lot of water. This last storm did very little to help. We need about 20 or 30 more storms like that.

[winxp_man]

Hey Aaron whatsup?

I tried to call you and got a wrong number. Did you change it?

We'll have to hook up soon.


Fish On!


I still got the same number I remember giving you. You still have the same one? Hope you do because I sent you a text today... :D

Any way yes its about that time of the year :D We sure are getting a bit a rain but more can't hurt :D

[ycflyfisher]

All the major reservoirs are in the same boat. Here’s how I’m seeing it:

The winter seasons of 2012, 2013, and 2014 resulted in ~500taf, ~300taf and ~150taf net gains to storage in Trinity respectively. Last year the T got the “critical dry year” hydrograph and the Jr. rights holders got a zero allocation resulting in the lowest possible demand in terms of draw down Trinity can experience. That demand was ~720taf. Trinity is currently at ~600taf. While we’re currently front-running the curve through Nov 2014, the reality as I’m seeing it, is that we need to front-run the curve BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT, every month this winter season.

We are in a position where there’s still potential risk where there will not be a “next season”. Even if we front-run the curve for Dec 2014 (compared to recent years) and get say enough precip to add ~200taf of storage to Trinity, but don’t get any significant precip the rest of the winter, factor in the ~350cfs to the river and winter flow through the Clear Creek tunnel, every day, all winter long: Trinity goes dry/nearly dry sometime in August 2015 without some form of federal intervention that releases the state and federal water projects from meeting obligated deliveries to riparian and senior rights holders. My knowledge of CA water management is rudimentary at best, but I’m pretty certain they can’t legally tell the riparian and senior rights holders that they’ll get no water, or that they’re going to be getting reduced deliveries. I don’t think that’s an option.

Even if we get a winter that’s roughly equivalent to the net gains in storage of the last three winters combined (i.e. ~150+~300+~500= ~900taf) that would put Trinity at ~800taf by Oct 1, 2015 IF drawdown demands remain the same as the designated “critically dry” 2014. The reality as I see it we get enough precip to give us that result, 2015 is probably not designated a “critically dry” year because the driver for those indices are relative runoff and not total storage from what I can tell. Drawdown in 2015 increases by ~150taf for a “dry” year and we end up in roughly the same boat we were in this fall (~650 vs 550taf). legit concerns of a fish kill in the lower K, legit concerns about adult fish surviving the lower river, but being severely infested enough that it impacts survival prior to spawning, horrific oversummering conditions that brutally hammer every aspect of the riverine ecosystem including survival to smoltification/smolt production, Trinity spitting thousands of dead fish into Lewie, and a myriad of other adverse factors including ongoing concerns that Trinity might go dry in the summer of 2016 if the winter of 2016 is not a really wet one.

Every other major storage reservoir/riverine ecosystem below it is in the same boat as the Trinity this winter and will suffer similar impacts if we don’t have a wet winter. I’m not seeing a few major storms or a few months worth of storms saving us unless one of those storms approaches 1986 severity. The reality as I see it, is that we likely don’t climb out of the pit we’re currently in with one wet winter.

[flyguy1]

The previous storm and hopefully the incoming storm is a great start in helping us climb out of this drought, bit remember the snow pack is our biggest water storage reservoir. We need snow and lots of it, pray for lower snow that the previous storms. The weather service prediction isfor average to a little above average rainfall for the next three month, and temps are predicted to be above average. Bring on the storms and snow.

Scott K

[Frank Alessio]

Everything is ok now Prop 1 Passed and Jerry will take care of you....

The winter seasons of 2012, 2013, and 2014 resulted in ~500taf, ~300taf and ~150taf net gains to storage in Trinity respectively. Last year the T got the “critical dry year” hydrograph and the Jr. rights holders got a zero allocation resulting in the lowest possible demand in terms of draw down Trinity can experience. That demand was ~720taf. Trinity is currently at ~600taf. While we’re currently front-running the curve through Nov 2014, the reality as I’m seeing it, is that we need to front-run the curve BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT, every month this winter season.

We are in a position where there’s still potential risk where there will not be a “next season”. Even if we front-run the curve for Dec 2014 (compared to recent years) and get say enough precip to add ~200taf of storage to Trinity, but don’t get any significant precip the rest of the winter, factor in the ~350cfs to the river and winter flow through the Clear Creek tunnel, every day, all winter long: Trinity goes dry/nearly dry sometime in August 2015 without some form of federal intervention that releases the state and federal water projects from meeting obligated deliveries to riparian and senior rights holders. My knowledge of CA water management is rudimentary at best, but I’m pretty certain they can’t legally tell the riparian and senior rights holders that they’ll get no water, or that they’re going to be getting reduced deliveries. I don’t think that’s an option.

Even if we get a winter that’s roughly equivalent to the net gains in storage of the last three winters combined (i.e. ~150+~300+~500= ~900taf) that would put Trinity at ~800taf by Oct 1, 2015 IF drawdown demands remain the same as the designated “critically dry” 2014. The reality as I see it we get enough precip to give us that result, 2015 is probably not designated a “critically dry” year because the driver for those indices are relative runoff and not total storage from what I can tell. Drawdown in 2015 increases by ~150taf for a “dry” year and we end up in roughly the same boat we were in this fall (~650 vs 550taf). legit concerns of a fish kill in the lower K, legit concerns about adult fish surviving the lower river, but being severely infested enough that it impacts survival prior to spawning, horrific oversummering conditions that brutally hammer every aspect of the riverine ecosystem including survival to smoltification/smolt production, Trinity spitting thousands of dead fish into Lewie, and a myriad of other adverse factors including ongoing concerns that Trinity might go dry in the summer of 2016 if the winter of 2016 is not a really wet one.

Every other major storage reservoir/riverine ecosystem below it is in the same boat as the Trinity this winter and will suffer similar impacts if we don’t have a wet winter. I’m not seeing a few major storms or a few months worth of storms saving us unless one of those storms approaches 1986 severity. The reality as I see it, is that we likely don’t climb out of the pit we’re currently in with one wet winter.[/QUOTE]

[STEELIES/26c3]

I've a lot more faith in Mother Nature than in Ole Man Brown...

On the local level, if you look back at storage history... Folsom Lake optimally holds around 400,000-480,000 AF this time of year. It is currently at 325,000 AF the last storm brought it up from 280,000 AF.

If this next storm is wetter than the last and all indications are that it will be... then we should see Folsom go up to at least 380,000 AF.

A couple additional, smaller events and we'll be approaching the low end of the traditionally-observed level for December in a non-drought year.

Without getting all DR. Science about it... the fact that we have gotten storms EARLIER in the winter is absolutely HUGE! especially in the light of the fact that all storms from here on out will produce snow and it is snow pack rather than rain that comprises the greatest amount of water accumulation in our reservoirs

The added, typical rains in March coupled with the melted snow runoff in the summer months should have Folsom back up to snuff in 2015.

My biggest fear is that the politicians and corporate water brokers will use their Prop 1 and 2 bill leverage to do what they want, make up for lost time (water) and take more than acceptable quotas and put us right back in the same boat the following year.

[winxp_man]

I've a lot more faith in Mother Nature than in Ole Man Brown...

On the local level, if you look back at storage history... Folsom Lake optimally holds around 400,000-480,000 AF this time of year. It is currently at 325,000 AF the last storm brought it up from 280,000 AF.

If this next storm is wetter than the last and all indications are that it will be... then we should see Folsom go up to at least 380,000 AF.

A couple additional, smaller events and we'll be approaching the low end of the traditionally-observed level for December in a non-drought year.

Without getting all DR. Science about it... the fact that we have gotten storms EARLIER in the winter is absolutely HUGE! especially in the light of the fact that all storms from here on out will produce snow and it is snow pack rather than rain that comprises the greatest amount of water accumulation in our reservoirs

The added, typical rains in March coupled with the melted snow runoff in the summer months should have Folsom back up to snuff in 2015.

My biggest fear is that the politicians and corporate water brokers will use their Prop 1 and 2 bill leverage to do what they want, make up for lost time (water) and take more than acceptable quotas and put us right back in the same boat the following year.


There needs to be a bill that take power away form this corrupt gubermint!!!! I dont care who and what freaking party it is. In my eyes now and opinion they are sucking the people dry of everything!

Either way I really hope your right about the rains and snow Mark :D

[timmosazz]

There needs to be a bill that take power away form this corrupt gubermint!!!! I dont care who and what freaking party it is. In my eyes now and opinion they are sucking the people dry of everything!

Either way I really hope your right about the rains and snow Mark :D

Agreed, we are being sucked dry!
I also have a lot of faith in Mother Nature. I think we are due.

[Frank Alessio]

There is a lot more working against us in California than Mother Nature....

[Troutsource]

One problem with this storm is that the Sierra won't get the typical orographic lift that usually gives it several times more precip than the valley. The reason is that the winds will be coming from the S/SE instead of SW -- the moisture won't be riding up the mountains and getting squeezed out, but rather down them (at least in the Tahoe area). The exception is in the Shasta area, where the winds will be going uphill (at least, this is what I gathered from following the recent discussions here and piecing things together: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=STO&issuedby=STO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 ). You can see a precip forecast map here if you go to the Forecast Precipitation (QPF) section on the right (you can see that Sacramento's f/c is about the same as Blue Canyon): http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/google.php?type=precip

AccuWeather has another 2.3" for Sacramento in December (after this storm), then, as of today, they also added about 5.5" of rain late in January (vs. <1" on yesterday's run): http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/sacramento-ca/95835/january-weather/40225_pc?monyr=1/1/2015&view=table One can only hope.

[STEELIES/26c3]

One problem with this storm is that the Sierra won't get the typical orographic lift that usually gives it several times more precip than the valley. The reason is that the winds will be coming from the S/SE instead of SW -- the moisture won't be riding up the mountains and getting squeezed out, but rather down them (at least in the Tahoe area). The exception is in the Shasta area, where the winds will be going uphill (at least, this is what I gathered from following the recent discussions here and piecing things together: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=STO&issuedby=STO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 ). You can see a precip forecast map here if you go to the Forecast Precipitation (QPF) section on the right (you can see that Sacramento's f/c is about the same as Blue Canyon): http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/google.php?type=precip

AccuWeather has another 2.3" for Sacramento in December (after this storm), then, as of today, they also added about 5.5" of rain late in January (vs. <1" on yesterday's run): http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/sacramento-ca/95835/january-weather/40225_pc?monyr=1/1/2015&view=table One can only hope.

Good info, thanks~