World weather patterns - WHOA

[Bill Kiene semi-retired]

I got this in an email from my good friend Todd Setzer:

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Whoa


This is an excerpt. Read the full statement at their web site. www.spaceandscience.net The report is projecting that the current pattern will produce conditions similar to the period 1790-1830 The Space and Science Research Center (SSRC), the leading independent research organization in the United States on the subject of the next climate change, issues today the following warning of imminent crop damage expected to produce food and ethanol shortages for the US and Canada: Over the next 30 months, global temperatures are expected to make another dramatic drop even greater than that seen during the 2007-2008 period. As the Earth’s current El Nino dissipates, the planet will return to the long term temperature decline brought on by the Sun’s historic reduction in output, the on-going “solar hibernation.” In follow-up to the specific global temperature forecast posted in SSRC Press Release 4-2009, the SSRC advises that in order to return to the long term decline slope from the current El Nino induced high temperatures, a significant global cold weather re-direction must occur. According to SSRC Director John Casey, “The Earth typically makes adjustments in major temperature spikes within two to three years. In this case as we cool down from El Nino, we are dealing with the combined effects of this planetary thermodynamic normalization and the influence of the more powerful underlying global temperature downturn brought on by the solar hibernation. Both forces will present the first opportunity since the period of Sun-caused global warming period ended to witness obvious harmful agricultural impacts of the new cold climate.

[aaron]

Keep in mind John Casey, the author, is an avid 'global warming' denier who claims to be at the forefront of his field. David Hathaway of NOAA is the scientist who has done the work on convection in the sun as it pertains to sunspot cycles and how they correlate to the planets temps. Casey is piggy backing his argument onto Hathaway's findings to justify what he is arguing.

The scientific community is still split on our current solar cycle. They really don't know if the 23rd (recorded) is still tailing out or if the 24th is beginning. Some think we are in a week cycle while others think the 25th cycle, likely to effect us next decade, will be noticeably weaker causing another Dalton Minimum, the cooler time period Casey refers to in the article.

What is important to remember is that the sun cyclically reverses itself, with cycles lasting decades. What Casey's organization/statement is ignoring is that a lot of the damage being done by emissions is not likely to be reversed by nature as easily for thousands of years, assuming emissions are slowed. So as it's coming into a new cycle colder temps could be in order (with only 23 cycles there's not enough data to prove any statistical significance correlating sunspot cycles and temps) but it won't last forever and the problems we face from emissions wont be solved by it.

[rainforestspey]

interesting. if that materializes it should bode well for productivity of salmon and steelhead in their southern range (california up to mid bc coast)

[590Mike]

This brings us back to Global cooling and everyone freezing to death. The planet is doomed. We're doomed.....ahhhhahahhahhh
What damage done by emissions is not reversible?

[aaron]

It is reversible, just takes a long time.


interesting. if that materializes it should bode well for productivity of salmon and steelhead in their southern range (california up to mid bc coast)

The la nina model favors the PNW. It sets up for big years from the southern cascades northward. Not so much for the Sierra and the south but there can be exceptions.

[rainforestspey]

hmm. my experience is primarily in the Puget Sound and Columbia drainages so yes La Ninas have been very good. Maybe not in terms of snow pack, buut don't cool years e.g. 2000, 2008 normally result in high survival down in this neck of the woods or is that restricted to coastal waters further north? environmental drivers of ocean productivity are so fascinating and complex!

[aaron]

La nina down here usually results in drier longer summers that often last until Thanksgiving so we dont see much benefit from the cold temps up north. We can still have a big year as long as the jet stream drops low enough but the snowpack usually has less water content. With the pacific trying to get into it's cold cycle (coinciding with a new solar cycle) la ninas should be more common with an el nino popping up every 3-4 years as a result of warm water piling up in the western pacific.