Digger
04-07-2007, 08:31 AM
It is still unclear to me if the coupled ocean-atmosphere (and other processes) system is evolving toward La-Nina since May is a critical month.
The weather-climate situation remains very complicated meaning most (not all) signals are weak. Short course is the extended North Pacific jet of roughly 2 weeks ago contributed to an eastward shift of the most intense tropical convection in a period of about a week. This forcing has since weakened. The latter is a component of the slow westward drift of the tropical forcing from the South Pacific which started around mid-January.
As most ensembles are capturing, another extended North Pacific jet episode is highly probable starting this weekend leading to strong troughs that will first slam into the USA west coast. This situation is likely to weaken coastal upwelling along the California coast, at least in the short-term. These troughs are then likely to move into the Rockies and Plains. This means the April cold regime now affecting the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast should moderate early next week. Going well into next week and possibly through week 3, much of the lower 48 states may be in for an exceptionally stormy regime, centered on the Rockies and Plains. In fact, understanding the seasonal cycle, events similar to the period of the last couple of weeks of December 2006 and the last half of February 2007 may be probable.
Ed Berry
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS LOST IT'S PUNCH AS IT WEAKENED AND IS MOVING MORE DUE EAST....LARGE SCALE EAST COAST UPPER LOW IS NOW PULLING EAST AND WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE WELL ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE A OF TYPICAL WINTER STORM WITH WIND AND SNOW....LOOKS LIKE A ONE FOOT PLUS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.....IN THE MEANTIME LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR THE EASTER BUNNY....SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.....NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON UNTIL THE WINDS COME UP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...
LONGER RANGE SHOWS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKS END.....MAKE YOUR PLANS FOR SOME APRIL POWDER NEXT WEEK AS WINTER BEGINS TO WIND DOWN......
H.SCHECKTER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES A WINTRY PATTERN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
The weather-climate situation remains very complicated meaning most (not all) signals are weak. Short course is the extended North Pacific jet of roughly 2 weeks ago contributed to an eastward shift of the most intense tropical convection in a period of about a week. This forcing has since weakened. The latter is a component of the slow westward drift of the tropical forcing from the South Pacific which started around mid-January.
As most ensembles are capturing, another extended North Pacific jet episode is highly probable starting this weekend leading to strong troughs that will first slam into the USA west coast. This situation is likely to weaken coastal upwelling along the California coast, at least in the short-term. These troughs are then likely to move into the Rockies and Plains. This means the April cold regime now affecting the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast should moderate early next week. Going well into next week and possibly through week 3, much of the lower 48 states may be in for an exceptionally stormy regime, centered on the Rockies and Plains. In fact, understanding the seasonal cycle, events similar to the period of the last couple of weeks of December 2006 and the last half of February 2007 may be probable.
Ed Berry
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS LOST IT'S PUNCH AS IT WEAKENED AND IS MOVING MORE DUE EAST....LARGE SCALE EAST COAST UPPER LOW IS NOW PULLING EAST AND WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE WELL ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE A OF TYPICAL WINTER STORM WITH WIND AND SNOW....LOOKS LIKE A ONE FOOT PLUS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.....IN THE MEANTIME LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR THE EASTER BUNNY....SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.....NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON UNTIL THE WINDS COME UP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...
LONGER RANGE SHOWS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKS END.....MAKE YOUR PLANS FOR SOME APRIL POWDER NEXT WEEK AS WINTER BEGINS TO WIND DOWN......
H.SCHECKTER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES A WINTRY PATTERN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK